Update - April 14, 2020

In the previous entry that was done March 27, I had a discussion about more cold.  For some reason, many people (experts?) were in discussion about the early spring and likelihood that severe cold was over.  In that March 27th posting, I wrote that it was way too early and that I was very confident of well below freezing temperatures occurring again, several times, for much of the high plains.  Hopefully the cold that occurred this past 12 days didn't cause too much damage (there had to be some, right?).

As far as precipitation, at least for the past 14 days, here is a map of what fell (which included more snow)….

The ominous "hole" centered on western Kansas was expected if you read my last posting as a "temporary slowdown" was expected starting in April.

What is next?

Looking at this afternoons messy satellite image.....

Our next weather maker is the X1 up across southwest Canada.  It will move east and then dive south by Thursday.  It will usher in another strong cold front.  Depending on the exact evolution, it appears the majority of the precipitation will remain across northern Kansas but especially eastern Kansas and points south and east.  The system will be cold enough for snow again, mainly north of I-70.   That cold with that front will be brief though.  By the weekend milder air will start to return.

Going forward, it would appear the last 7-10 days of April will be much warmer.  As far as a repeat of the severe cold after that period - I'm not seeing much possibility at all.  Will there be another freeze?  During that period I don't believe so.  But - there is a small chance (less than 5-10 percent) that a light freeze or frost could occur between May 1 and May 6 for the high plains. More on that later.

Remember the dates of April 21-22 that I have mentioned since the 27th of February posting (and mentioned it again in the last update)?  Well, the long range computer models for weeks now have shown absolutely NOTHING around that date!  Am I backing off?  Nope, I'm going to stick with something (potentially substantial) happening in the general vicinity of the high plains.  Ha, we'll see.

Here is the precipitation outlook from the Weather Prediction Center valid through next Tuesday the 21st...(the precipitation you see for the central U.S. is for this coming Thursdays system)...

I'll do my best to get another post done late in the weekend or early next week.