Update Jan 2, 2018

It's hard to believe it's already 2018 - but also hard to believe how terrible this weather pattern is!

There has been virtually no change in the pattern.  Earlier in the fall it appeared that the developing flow would allow for periods of brutal cold for the winter.  The first shot I thought might occur was expected during the first half of December.  There were fronts, but the associated cold was just not making much progress south,  primarily because of a lack of snowcover across Canada and the northern plains.  It was only a matter of time.  Finally the Arctic air was dislodged and came crashing through much of the eastern 2/3 of the country and with at least some snow up north.  If there would have been snowcover across the high plains, low temperatures would have been 20-25 below zero.  As it was, lows were still 5 to 10 below zero! Temperatures below zero with bare ground are somewhat rare!

Since early October the flow aloft has been predominately northwest to southeast.  Good for bringing cold fronts, but little moisture (for the high plains).  However, early on there was a brief period of a week or two where the jet stream dug into the western U.S., which can lead to plains storms.  But those went too far north when they ejected into the central part of the U.S. and came out too fast (other complications too) that prevented organized precipitation.  Areas around I-70 in Kansas benefited in early October but the remainder of the area got essentially skunked.  

The fact of this brief period of the jetstream digging into the western U.S. gives me hope of at least a couple chances for significant precipitation events later this winter.  I mentioned this several times in previous blogs I posted back in October/November.  But, even if this digging occurs, that does not guarantee a precipitation event unfolding where it is desperately needed.  We can only hope and pray.

Looking at this mornings satellite image, there is something showing up that has not been prevalent yet this fall/winter...

Look at that system southwest of California!  That is a good sign for them!  The flow associated with that storm is coming from the very deep tropics!  Usually a system coming through California will benefit the plains, eventually.  BUT, at this point it looks like this storm will move north or northeast and NOT east into the southwest U.S.!   Eventually though the remnants will move across the central U.S. but will most likely be dysfunctional as it drops southeast out of the northwest U.S..  The result for the high plains will be only a little bit of precipitation (if any) towards the end of the weekend or early next week.  But also more cold air behind it.  There are indications of another system near California next week but I have ZERO confidence if it will move east or similar to the current California system.  Therefore, I'm not expecting much of any precipitation through mid-January. 

How dry is it?  Well since October 7, at the Dodge City airport only 0.01" has fallen.  Some areas around the high plains south of I-70 there has been a little more (not much more) and some locations there has been just a trace.  Looking at records since late 1874, this is the driest stretch for the same period at the Dodge City airport.  It was very similar in 1955-56.  Do you know what happened in 1956?  Driest year on record.  But there was also 20 inches of snow in Dodge City that January through April.

From the Weather Prediction Center - here is their outlook through early November 9th.

So, to summarize.  There is not much hope for much precipitation through mid-January (although there is a glimmer).  Expect another shot or two of cold (not as cold as the current air) but then maybe a decent warming trend by mid month.  I'm still expecting several decent chances for significant precipitation going into early spring (but will it be enough?).  I would not be surprised to end up with near normal snowfall by the end of April.  Am I expecting  repeat of 1956 or 2011?  No, but it's something that needs monitoring.  More on that later.

Update - December 22, 2017

There has been little change in the outlook from the previous post I did on the 13th (you can read it by clicking here).

The colder air finally arrived for the central part of the county, but because of the dry air and dry ground, temperatures haven't been THAT cold.  More shots of cold will be arriving to finish out the month and year.

Significant precipitation still does not appear to be in the offing, unfortunately. 

Looking at the mornings satellite image...



The system coming up from southeast New Mexico (red X) will spread precipitation to as close as southeast Kansas.  Excessive rainfall will occur from northeast Texas through middle Appalachians through the weekend.  In most years this would be an ideal situation for much of Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas to get a fair amount of precipitation.  Not this year.

On the satellite image the other red X up in the BC region will slide southeast and will bring a band of snow from western Nebraska to northern Missouri, primarily late on the 23rd into Christmas Eve morning.  There was also a very strong storm moving towards the Gulf of Alaska.  Remnants of this storm will likely impact the high plains with cold air, but any precipitation will probably stay north of I-70.  The cold will follow late Christmas Day into the 26th.  Tuesday the 27th will likely be the coldest day of next week.  The precipitation signal remains bleak for a while.  I'm hoping for something around the 2nd of January, give or take a day or two.  But that is a  "hoping", not "expecting".   We'll see.  Otherwise, it looks rather bleak at the moment.

As far as expected precipitation through the end of next week, here is the outlook from the Weather Prediction Center (and it looks reasonable)...



With the very dry pattern this past several months, the drought is expanding.  Here is the latest drought monitor...
And the outlook from the Climate Prediction Center does not paint a favorable outlook through the end of March...

 I'll try and update again later next week.

Update 12/13/17

In the previous post I did on the 7th (if you didn't see it you can read it by clicking here), I discussed the dry weather and the brief cold.  I said at the end of the post "There should still be a few opportunities later this month and into early January."  There are finally signs of a change but not necessarily to wet, but definitely to cold!  In November I thought that really cold air could arrive after the 10th (thinking mid-month).  There have frontal passages but without snowcover to the north and with the air being highly modified as it dries coming over the Rockies, all we've got is brief cold but a lot of wind and dry humidity.

The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) that I've discussed a million and one times, is still chugging away out across the western Pacific and is finally reaching a location in the Pacific that it will contribute to retrogressing the ridge farther west, at least for a period of time.  Here is the latest satellite showing this ridge (squiggly blue line)...

 
  The really cold air remains in place across Siberia and parts of Europe and Canada.  There is a sharp gradient across the Pacific.  With the MJO arriving in a favorable location, the result will be this retrogression and allowing the cold to shift farther west in the states, once some amplification takes place.  That means that the high plains will finally see a really cold shot of cold air that this time will last more than a day or two.   The most likely time for this to happen will be around December 22 (give or take a day or two).  Into January there should be reoccurring shots of cold (intermixed with a few warmer days).  

But about precipitation....

Normally these Arctic intrusions will also help to "squeeze" out some snow but it is usually dry and fluffy unless there is a storm system interacting with the cold.  At this point, there is a small chance of one of these storm systems around Christmas and perhaps around the New Year.  But I'm not really optimistic about that happening.  But keep your fingers crossed because at least there is a small glimmer of hope.  BTW, if you follow our friend on Facebook that posts output from the notoriously bad GFS - you will probably see maps of excessive snowfall.  This model has produced some heavy snow in it's output, but then followed by absolutely nothing - which is a common occurrence with long range models.  Don't bother reading his explanations of the model output as they are normally riddled with inaccuracies (I'm not sure HOW he got a degree that he claims to have).  Geez!

More next week.

Update - 12/7/17

Just a quick update with my free-time limited...

In the post I did on the 30th (if you did not read it, you can do so by clicking here), my pessimistic side was showing through.  That "side" is growing!

This morning had the coldest air of the season across the high plains with many areas well into the single digits.  This was expected, albeit a touch ahead of schedule. Initially, I thought the cold for this area would be longer lasting based on the expected pattern.  At this point, even with a massive ridge across the western U.S., this extended period doesn't appear to be the case.  The cold will "reload" and will make another appearance later this month, but for now I'm not seeing much more than an occasional glancing blow, at least for another 7 to 10 days. 

Dryness....I'm getting more and more concerned about this dry period that MOST of the high plains has been in since early October.  Although I still expect 3 or 4 decent storm chances this winter, those dry stretches will likely be rather long.  If we don't get much out of those 3 or 4 chances, it's going to be really ugly for the start of the growing season.

There should still be a few opportunities later this month and into early January.  Nothing is showing up at the present either by computer model or by mere observation of the pattern.  I'll update again next week and see what might be cooking.

Quick update - 11/30/17

If you haven't read the blog in a while, check back on the last few posts I've done about what to expect this fall, winter and into next growing season.

This is just a quick update.   I'm growing increasingly concerned about the outlook for below average precipitation this winter.  There could still be 3 or 4 decent storms and those alone could actually bring near seasonal precipitation.  If we don't get those decent storms (always a possibility), then below normal will be a given.  But remember, winter precipitation on average is low anyway - it's our DRY season!

If you're an irrigator I would highly encourage you to take advantage of this "mild" weather to dump some water on the fields if you need it, BEFORE the deep freeze arrives!

In the previous post I did on the 22nd (you can read it by clicking here) I had mentioned the possibility of the first good opportunity of a storm between December 3 and 10.  Some of the computer models have occasionally hinted at that also.  But, I'm really starting to lean away from that possibility. I'm NOT liking what I'm seeing.  I also mentioned brutal cold beyond that period. That still looks likely.  The coldest air of the season will impact the midwest at that point, but the high plains will be on the edge of the colder air.

So, again, if you need to put water on the fields, don't hesitate because of the potential brutal cold coming in, especially after the 10th. 

I'll shoot for another update sometime around the 5th.

Update - November 22, 2017

Since the last posting on the 3rd of November (read it by clicking here) the weather across the high plains has seen quite a few frontal passages with occasional colder weather (most notable during the overnight) but very little to no precipitation.  At Dodge City (airport) there has only been 0.01" of moisture since October 6th.  Some locations there hasn't been any at all!  Obviously it's getting really dry, especially in the top several inches of the soil.    Unfortunately, the outlook through the rest of November is not good as far as moisture.

In the previous post my early outlook for the high plains was for the following:

For the high plains....
Early fall - drier than normal for an average.  Temperatures near to above on average (but with some brief cold).
Late fall - near normal precipitation on average.  Temperatures near to below on average.
Winter (Dec-Feb) - near to above normal precipitation on average.  Temperatures near average but with a couple of bitter periods (short lived).
Spring - I have no clue - ok, I'll guess normal precip and temperatures
Summer - drier and hotter than normal.


I'm not changing my mind at this point.  At the present time, there continues to be conflicting signals!  First the Arctic Oscillation has dove deep into the negative category!


The North Atlantic Oscillation has also gone negative.


These two indices should be very favorable for a massive invasion of Arctic cold into the states, including Kansas.  As of this Wednesday morning, that cold air was in place to the north.

But there is something else going on and I'm not quite sure what is driving this current weather pattern!  I believe though that the pattern is still setting up and perhaps it will be influenced with a greater contribution from the tropical Pacific.  I'm not sold on that yet, but it's a possibility.  With that being said, looking at the equatorial Pacific, the ENSO has moved more towards a La Nina (at least some of the indices point in that direction).  IF, and that's a BIG if, the equatorial forcing in the Nino 3,4 dominates this winter, the outcome for the plains could go in the direction that we've already seen this fall.   That would be frequent cold frontal passages, which would mitigate precipitation chances, but with wild swings in temperatures.  The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) should still be a contributor on occasion so that leaves the door open for a 2 or 3 "wetter" periods or at least opportunities for wet storms out of the southern Rockies as we go into late winter.  We better hope so or it's going to be an ugly, dry and dusty spring!

So, for now, I'll keep with my early outlook.   Perhaps the first good opportunity for a decent storm will be between December 3-10 with brutal cold following for a few days.  Don't count on it yet as there are absolutely no indications - it's just kind of a gut feeling (and that is before it's stuffed with turkey).

 I'll try and update again around the first of December.

Update - 11/3/17 - Conflicting Signals

There really hasn't been much to blog about since my last post I did on the 17th (read it by clicking here).  Precipitation has been pretty dismal since then, but at least it allowed for harvesting of fall crops and planting of the hard winter wheat.  Unfortunately, many areas need some precip to get a good stand of wheat before we go into the dark days of winter.

Looking at the current satellite image, there are several "little" unorganized systems that will impact parts of the central plains by Tuesday or Wednesday. 

Unfortunately they may not get into a configuration to bring much precipitation (if any) to the high plains.  For areas of eastern Kansas and Oklahoma and on east, there shouldn't be a problem.

Here is the latest thinking from the Weather Prediction Center (through the end of next week):

So back to the previous post.  At the end I gave a really early outlook for the fall, winter and into next summer.  As I've stated numerous times, the pattern in the fall and winter is completely unrelated to the pattern from the previous seasons.  The forcing for the pattern might be the same, but the pattern in general is different.  Here is what I wrote back on the 17th in that previous post:


For the high plains....
Early fall - drier than normal for an average.  Temperatures near to above on average (but with some brief cold).
Late fall - near normal precipitation on average.  Temperatures near to below on average.
Winter (Dec-Feb) - near to above normal precipitation on average.  Temperatures near average but with a couple of bitter periods (short lived).
Spring - I have no clue - ok, I'll guess normal precip and temperatures
Summer - drier and hotter than normal.

I'm not going to waver from that very early initial "guess" because I need this new pattern to fully show itself, which it has not done so yet.  But, I'm starting to see some of the clues.  So far temperatures have averaged slightly above normal, although there have been quite a few days of below normal.  That is the first clue.  So far, more frequent cold fronts.

Second, it's been really dry so far with limited storm systems.  That "might" be the second clue. However, it is too early to jump on that as the pattern is still developing.

As I stated in the Oct 17 post, the Madden Julian Oscillation has been very robust and so far has amplified the pattern downstream, as expected.  This might be one of those players this year.  I've also noticed a sub-tropical jet coming out of the eastern Pacific.  One of the biggest keys so far is the massive upper level ridge that has been centered, in general, across the eastern Pacific and into the western U.S. and extending way north where it has shown some blocking characteristics.  There has also been some hint of blocking over Greenland (a big player for cold into the states).  Those features would point to occasional cold outbreaks into the central U.S. and the potential for wave breaking upper systems into the Four Corners region.  IF that occurs, I could see the possibility of several high-impacting major winter storms into the high plains.  BUT I'm not ready to pull the trigger on that outlook yet.

The conflicting signals?  There are some indications of a dry fall and winter and in general near to above normal temperatures for the high plains.  But then there are those signals that point to near to below normal temperatures and near to above normal precipitation.  I've got to have another 3 to 4 weeks to see how this pattern will start to repeat and see what persistent features dominate the pattern. Once I can identify that, I'll have more confidence in going forward through winter and into the next growing season. 

The experts at the Climate Prediction Center have posted the maps below:

This shows the probabilities leaning towards warmer than average temperatures going into January.  There is not much signal for precipitation (not leaning in the direction of wet or dry).  But this appears to be strictly a La Nina composite forecast, and La Nina has NOT formed yet (and may not). 

I won't be able to post again until the week of Thanksgiving.  Hopefully by then a few more of the parts of the puzzle will reveal themselves.