Update - 11/3/17 - Conflicting Signals

There really hasn't been much to blog about since my last post I did on the 17th (read it by clicking here).  Precipitation has been pretty dismal since then, but at least it allowed for harvesting of fall crops and planting of the hard winter wheat.  Unfortunately, many areas need some precip to get a good stand of wheat before we go into the dark days of winter.

Looking at the current satellite image, there are several "little" unorganized systems that will impact parts of the central plains by Tuesday or Wednesday. 

Unfortunately they may not get into a configuration to bring much precipitation (if any) to the high plains.  For areas of eastern Kansas and Oklahoma and on east, there shouldn't be a problem.

Here is the latest thinking from the Weather Prediction Center (through the end of next week):

So back to the previous post.  At the end I gave a really early outlook for the fall, winter and into next summer.  As I've stated numerous times, the pattern in the fall and winter is completely unrelated to the pattern from the previous seasons.  The forcing for the pattern might be the same, but the pattern in general is different.  Here is what I wrote back on the 17th in that previous post:


For the high plains....
Early fall - drier than normal for an average.  Temperatures near to above on average (but with some brief cold).
Late fall - near normal precipitation on average.  Temperatures near to below on average.
Winter (Dec-Feb) - near to above normal precipitation on average.  Temperatures near average but with a couple of bitter periods (short lived).
Spring - I have no clue - ok, I'll guess normal precip and temperatures
Summer - drier and hotter than normal.

I'm not going to waver from that very early initial "guess" because I need this new pattern to fully show itself, which it has not done so yet.  But, I'm starting to see some of the clues.  So far temperatures have averaged slightly above normal, although there have been quite a few days of below normal.  That is the first clue.  So far, more frequent cold fronts.

Second, it's been really dry so far with limited storm systems.  That "might" be the second clue. However, it is too early to jump on that as the pattern is still developing.

As I stated in the Oct 17 post, the Madden Julian Oscillation has been very robust and so far has amplified the pattern downstream, as expected.  This might be one of those players this year.  I've also noticed a sub-tropical jet coming out of the eastern Pacific.  One of the biggest keys so far is the massive upper level ridge that has been centered, in general, across the eastern Pacific and into the western U.S. and extending way north where it has shown some blocking characteristics.  There has also been some hint of blocking over Greenland (a big player for cold into the states).  Those features would point to occasional cold outbreaks into the central U.S. and the potential for wave breaking upper systems into the Four Corners region.  IF that occurs, I could see the possibility of several high-impacting major winter storms into the high plains.  BUT I'm not ready to pull the trigger on that outlook yet.

The conflicting signals?  There are some indications of a dry fall and winter and in general near to above normal temperatures for the high plains.  But then there are those signals that point to near to below normal temperatures and near to above normal precipitation.  I've got to have another 3 to 4 weeks to see how this pattern will start to repeat and see what persistent features dominate the pattern. Once I can identify that, I'll have more confidence in going forward through winter and into the next growing season. 

The experts at the Climate Prediction Center have posted the maps below:

This shows the probabilities leaning towards warmer than average temperatures going into January.  There is not much signal for precipitation (not leaning in the direction of wet or dry).  But this appears to be strictly a La Nina composite forecast, and La Nina has NOT formed yet (and may not). 

I won't be able to post again until the week of Thanksgiving.  Hopefully by then a few more of the parts of the puzzle will reveal themselves.