Update 12/13/17

In the previous post I did on the 7th (if you didn't see it you can read it by clicking here), I discussed the dry weather and the brief cold.  I said at the end of the post "There should still be a few opportunities later this month and into early January."  There are finally signs of a change but not necessarily to wet, but definitely to cold!  In November I thought that really cold air could arrive after the 10th (thinking mid-month).  There have frontal passages but without snowcover to the north and with the air being highly modified as it dries coming over the Rockies, all we've got is brief cold but a lot of wind and dry humidity.

The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) that I've discussed a million and one times, is still chugging away out across the western Pacific and is finally reaching a location in the Pacific that it will contribute to retrogressing the ridge farther west, at least for a period of time.  Here is the latest satellite showing this ridge (squiggly blue line)...

 
  The really cold air remains in place across Siberia and parts of Europe and Canada.  There is a sharp gradient across the Pacific.  With the MJO arriving in a favorable location, the result will be this retrogression and allowing the cold to shift farther west in the states, once some amplification takes place.  That means that the high plains will finally see a really cold shot of cold air that this time will last more than a day or two.   The most likely time for this to happen will be around December 22 (give or take a day or two).  Into January there should be reoccurring shots of cold (intermixed with a few warmer days).  

But about precipitation....

Normally these Arctic intrusions will also help to "squeeze" out some snow but it is usually dry and fluffy unless there is a storm system interacting with the cold.  At this point, there is a small chance of one of these storm systems around Christmas and perhaps around the New Year.  But I'm not really optimistic about that happening.  But keep your fingers crossed because at least there is a small glimmer of hope.  BTW, if you follow our friend on Facebook that posts output from the notoriously bad GFS - you will probably see maps of excessive snowfall.  This model has produced some heavy snow in it's output, but then followed by absolutely nothing - which is a common occurrence with long range models.  Don't bother reading his explanations of the model output as they are normally riddled with inaccuracies (I'm not sure HOW he got a degree that he claims to have).  Geez!

More next week.