Friday, December 22, 2017

Update - December 22, 2017

There has been little change in the outlook from the previous post I did on the 13th (you can read it by clicking here).

The colder air finally arrived for the central part of the county, but because of the dry air and dry ground, temperatures haven't been THAT cold.  More shots of cold will be arriving to finish out the month and year.

Significant precipitation still does not appear to be in the offing, unfortunately. 

Looking at the mornings satellite image...



The system coming up from southeast New Mexico (red X) will spread precipitation to as close as southeast Kansas.  Excessive rainfall will occur from northeast Texas through middle Appalachians through the weekend.  In most years this would be an ideal situation for much of Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas to get a fair amount of precipitation.  Not this year.

On the satellite image the other red X up in the BC region will slide southeast and will bring a band of snow from western Nebraska to northern Missouri, primarily late on the 23rd into Christmas Eve morning.  There was also a very strong storm moving towards the Gulf of Alaska.  Remnants of this storm will likely impact the high plains with cold air, but any precipitation will probably stay north of I-70.  The cold will follow late Christmas Day into the 26th.  Tuesday the 27th will likely be the coldest day of next week.  The precipitation signal remains bleak for a while.  I'm hoping for something around the 2nd of January, give or take a day or two.  But that is a  "hoping", not "expecting".   We'll see.  Otherwise, it looks rather bleak at the moment.

As far as expected precipitation through the end of next week, here is the outlook from the Weather Prediction Center (and it looks reasonable)...



With the very dry pattern this past several months, the drought is expanding.  Here is the latest drought monitor...
And the outlook from the Climate Prediction Center does not paint a favorable outlook through the end of March...

 I'll try and update again later next week.

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