There has been virtually no change in the pattern. Earlier in the fall it appeared that the developing flow would allow for periods of brutal cold for the winter. The first shot I thought might occur was expected during the first half of December. There were fronts, but the associated cold was just not making much progress south, primarily because of a lack of snowcover across Canada and the northern plains. It was only a matter of time. Finally the Arctic air was dislodged and came crashing through much of the eastern 2/3 of the country and with at least some snow up north. If there would have been snowcover across the high plains, low temperatures would have been 20-25 below zero. As it was, lows were still 5 to 10 below zero! Temperatures below zero with bare ground are somewhat rare!
Since early October the flow aloft has been predominately northwest to southeast. Good for bringing cold fronts, but little moisture (for the high plains). However, early on there was a brief period of a week or two where the jet stream dug into the western U.S., which can lead to plains storms. But those went too far north when they ejected into the central part of the U.S. and came out too fast (other complications too) that prevented organized precipitation. Areas around I-70 in Kansas benefited in early October but the remainder of the area got essentially skunked.
The fact of this brief period of the jetstream digging into the western U.S. gives me hope of at least a couple chances for significant precipitation events later this winter. I mentioned this several times in previous blogs I posted back in October/November. But, even if this digging occurs, that does not guarantee a precipitation event unfolding where it is desperately needed. We can only hope and pray.
Looking at this mornings satellite image, there is something showing up that has not been prevalent yet this fall/winter...
Look at that system southwest of California! That is a good sign for them! The flow associated with that storm is coming from the very deep tropics! Usually a system coming through California will benefit the plains, eventually. BUT, at this point it looks like this storm will move north or northeast and NOT east into the southwest U.S.! Eventually though the remnants will move across the central U.S. but will most likely be dysfunctional as it drops southeast out of the northwest U.S.. The result for the high plains will be only a little bit of precipitation (if any) towards the end of the weekend or early next week. But also more cold air behind it. There are indications of another system near California next week but I have ZERO confidence if it will move east or similar to the current California system. Therefore, I'm not expecting much of any precipitation through mid-January.
How dry is it? Well since October 7, at the Dodge City airport only 0.01" has fallen. Some areas around the high plains south of I-70 there has been a little more (not much more) and some locations there has been just a trace. Looking at records since late 1874, this is the driest stretch for the same period at the Dodge City airport. It was very similar in 1955-56. Do you know what happened in 1956? Driest year on record. But there was also 20 inches of snow in Dodge City that January through April.
From the Weather Prediction Center - here is their outlook through early November 9th.
So, to summarize. There is not much hope for much precipitation through mid-January (although there is a glimmer). Expect another shot or two of cold (not as cold as the current air) but then maybe a decent warming trend by mid month. I'm still expecting several decent chances for significant precipitation going into early spring (but will it be enough?). I would not be surprised to end up with near normal snowfall by the end of April. Am I expecting repeat of 1956 or 2011? No, but it's something that needs monitoring. More on that later.
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