It's looking grim but with one hope

That isn't a very optimistic title to this blog.  Fears of a dry May and June that I had discussed in blog posts during the late winter and early spring are coming to fruition.  The widespread rains a week ago (although not every one benefited) were a blessing and somewhat of a "fluke" in the overall pattern impacting the high plains.  I'm not liking the trend as this may become a run-away-train for the high plains.  In the title "with one hope" appears to be the only chance for a saving grace.  That hope?  The North American Monsoon (NAM).  The NAM has already shown some development and is still set up to become even more active.  You can see that on the upper air chart.

The hope for the high plains is that it shifts periodically eastward at times during the summer.  That certainly does not look to be the case for the near future.  In fact, the upper level ridge (the center of the southeast on the map) looks to expand westward through the weekend and into next week.  That will only exuberate the heat and wind.  I guess that will be good for those lucky ones that have winter wheat to harvest. 

After that wet period earlier in the month, there still has been some rain but really it's been pretty scattered for the high plains with most areas receiving zilch.  Here is a look at what has fallen this past 7 days.

And combine the lack of precipitation this past week with the ridiculous wind combined with hot afternoon temperatures - not a good combination at all. 

The drought monitor was updated just as the last of the heavier rains fell last week and I'm not sure impacts from the rain were incorporated into the drought map.  It doesn't matter....that was short term event whereas the drought is long-term. 

Other than the glimmer of hope for the NAM this summer, I do see a very small chance of a brief pattern change the last few days of June and into the first week of July.  I would bet there were will be some really hot (well over 100 degrees) but hopefully one or two thunderstorms complexes coming off the lee slope of the Rockies, at least for Kansas and Nebraska.  That would also moderate daytime temperatures and increase humidity.  That pattern shift should be temporary.  

Overall I think July will have daily temperatures above normal and precipitation will be below, for most of the area.  August could surprise me.  I've seen late summer shifts that could benefit the area setting up for precipitation into September which would obviously help in the fall planting - and hopefully salvage any warm season crops that may have struggled to survive to that point. 

I'll attempt an update later next week.