Everything is still on track

If you go back to the previous post on Feb 24 (read it by clicking here), everything is right on schedule and pretty much as expected.  In the previous posts, even back a month to February 11th, I mentioned March 3-10 as having my attention.  That period worked out almost exactly!  Of course the high plains was too far west to benefit on the earlier systems but at least "most" of the region received some precipitation with the last of the events for this period.

The first event on March 4 had some thunderstorms across southwest Kansas but because of very dry air, only a few hundredths of an inch was observed.

That system eventually produced the deadly outbreak of thunderstorms and tornadoes across Iowa and Missouri.  The second part of the system produced the thundersleet, thundersnow, and freezing rain across south central into northeast Kansas and snow across northwest Kansas.

This has been a theme for many of the systems...just too far east of the high plains.  The last of the systems brought heavy snow across northern Kansas and the second round was less organized and brought several inches to southeast Colorado and into northwest Oklahoma.

In that previous post I also mentioned April 20.  But that is just one date and not a period of unsettledness.  We'll see how that one goes!

Even though I have posted about those two (March 3-10 and April 20), that doesn't mean there won't be other systems.  In fact the another one that shows up in my analysis is March 18.  But as has been the case (and mentioned above), the timing and moisture has shifted the "main" threat east of the high plains.  Maybe at least a part of the high plains will get lucky with that one.  There have definitely been weather systems since the fall, its just that they are NOT targeting our area!  With time, a few will.

As indicated in the previous blog post....

Overall I think March will average out to be above normal on temperatures and probably below normal on precipitation (despite the chance for early March).

April - likely below normal precipitation and near to below normal temperatures.

May - Very warm and likely below normal precipitation, except that with luck on timing of systems, the precipitation outlook for May could be closer to normal or even above.  There is a tremendous amount of uncertainty.  Fingers crossed for sure. 

I don't have any new "clues" to change much.  This cold spell with the March 3-10 period could be enough to skew the average March temperature to closer to normal even with the warming trend expected starting this week.  I also see another cool down and possible storminess the last few days of the month. 

One final thought...

There has been a pretty robust Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) and I think it has had some impact on our weather systems this past month.  This MJO has actually stalled (probably tied to the colder than normal Pacific waters east of the dateline).  I need to re-analysis any possible connection to our current pattern and see if this new development could give us any hope for this late winter and early spring.  I'm not optimistic.

I hope to post again late next week.  This is one of my busier times of the year (but the big R time is nearing).