Before I get into the meat of the outlook for the spring-summer-end of the growing season, I'll need a bit more time to do some more analyzing. The picture is becoming a bit more clear but I need to look a bit more data.
I thought I'd just briefly mention some of the difficulties in making a "short term" forecast for the high plains. Take this upcoming event as an example. Looking at the upper air chart this morning...
A disturbance in the upper atmosphere over southwest Canada was moving south-southeast this morning It is expected to intensify as it drops south before turning east. Forecasts being made for the expected surface weather across the high plains for tomorrow (Tuesday) and into Wednesday will have to settle in on several assumptions, some assumptions that won't verify.
1) Will the system take a track as indicated by the red line?
2) Will the system continue to intensify as it drops south?
3) What will the impacts be if the system turns east more quickly, or even later and farther south?
4) What will the moisture profile be like to feed this system?
5) What will the ice crystal and eventual snowflake temperature profile be like - all dependent on the growth zone of the ice crystals.
It is certain (100 percent) that this system WILL produce an area of snow across the high plains. But what will the areal extent be (how far east) and coming up with an amount for any one location (both snowfall and moisture content) is purely speculation and a WAG. You might ask, "won't computer forecast models help out since the event is less that 24 hours away?" Ha! Look at what the various computer forecast models have for Dodge City. That is a range from a dusting to almost 8 inches! Ridiculous!
The same extreme variance is indicated for other locations. Since this system is likely to produce banded snowfall, there should be NO confidence until the snow actually starts to develop and the upper system has made it's turn. That means that the lead time with confidence may only be hours. It's the way it is with forecasting sometimes.
That leads me to the outlook for the growing season. If there is this much difficulty with just one minor weather system, how can forecasts months and seasons in advance have any validity? It's tough!
What I try to do is pick out periods of opportunity. For instance, in my last post I did on the 12th, I said "Other than a few days of possible precipitation with the cold air later this month, I'm afraid that February may follow January with several outbreaks of cold but with not many chances for precipitation = maybe just a couple." This storm for tomorrow may be it for the balance of the month. Another shot of cold or two so nothing mild or warm is expected. There is "some" hint of changes for that first week of February and I'll address that on the next blog posting (hoping to do that before the end of the month).
But for now, let's hope this system brings at least a small gift for many of us. Those that get under the bands will benefit the most and may get up to 1/2 inch of moisture in the snow. Others it should be under 1/4 of an inch, but at least it's something.
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