Screwed Up Weather Pattern

In the post I did on the 11th (read it by clicking here) I discussed the negative trend I was seeing in precipitation chances.  I was still cautiously optimistic but had concerns about that trend going very dry - and subsequently hot.  Here is the 14 day rainfall ending this morning but in many areas has not been enough to get June to normal or above (mostly below normal) for the high plains.

The headline of this post "Screwed Up Weather Pattern" is no joke.  Look what has happened across the Pacific Northwest with the HUGE and very intense upper high that has developed....

Compare that part of the country to what was going on a little over 2 weeks ago....

That was very unexpected a week out.  I believe that transition to very hot (record heat) in that part of the country is tied directly to the tropics and possibly a Rosby Wave propagation event from a decaying MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) which has impacted the NW negatively but favorably for parts of the high plains and into the Rockies.   Back to the jet stream map above, the red X over Minnesota with the red dashed line southwest into northern Mexico has helped to bring the clouds, precipitation and cooler weather.  These events above has triggered a favorably environment for tropical activity off the west coast of Mexico (Hurricane Enrique) and has fired up the North American Monsoon which has pumped moisture into the Rockies and west Texas.   This should benefit most of the central and southern high plains with areas of rainfall and continued cooler temperatures through this current week (especially west Texas). Here is the outlook for precipitation from the Weather Prediction Center....

I'm not terribly optimistic with the rain for southwest Kansas but it is possible through period ending Monday July 5.  That is a pretty generous amount of rainfall for Oklahoma (who already got pounded by excessive rainfall this past few days), Texas, New Mexico and the Colorado Rockies.  The rainfall across Oklahoma and Texas could very well have a feedback on July weather.  Even though there will be a window of several days of over 100 the first week of July, the feedback from a "wet" Texas and "wet" Oklahoma and the beginnings of the North American Monsoon may promote July ending up near to below normal on temps (the average for the entire month). That could also favor at least normal rainfall if not above for July.