I despise flip flopping on forecasts and outlooks - especially my outlooks. During the late winter and early spring I was seeing strong signals of the drought expanding and increasing in strength but I wasn't ready to buy in even though in the back of my mind I knew we were due to get extremely dry this year.
By April I then starting to see signals of a wet pattern developing, especially May and I felt very confident that would happen, especially given that the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) and the pattern signal of weather systems were seemingly aligned. Indeed it turned wet and wiped out the drought across the majority of the high plains. Here is the latest map compiled on June 8...
In the posts on May 19 and again on May 28 I was seeing strong signals for normal to above normal rainfall for June. Long range computer forecast models also supported that idea and with a LOT of consistency from day-to-day which made me feel more confident. In the previous post on the 28th I was expecting a break in the rainfall with things drying out. However, I was not expecting the trend to persist like it has. The surface moisture (humidity/dew point) has been insane! But because temperatures aloft have been so warm there just has been any real attempt for the atmosphere to convert this moisture into storms. As of today (Friday) a "cold" front was sweeping through the area dropping the moisture in the air significantly. The thunderstorms with the system responsible or producing the cold front were WAY northeast! Here is a look at the jet stream map from this morning...
The jetstream has shifted way north (which is not unusual). One "bad" signal I've seen during this past week is 1) the warm temperatures aloft, and 2) a ridge aloft developing from western Mexico into the central U.S.. Plus the upper level trough seemingly established off the northwest coast of the U.S.. I hope this breaks a bit during this next week. If not, I unfortunately will have to do that flip-flop and back off the thought of normal to above normal rainfall for June, which would probably carry into July. We are due for a dry year. Dodge City has had 7 years in a row of above normal precipitation. The greatest streak since 1875 is 3 years in a row. I'm not ready to throw in the towel but dang I'm having second thoughts.
So - here is what I hope will happen. Next week could have increased opportunities for a few thunderstorm complexes, especially overnight. Another front will be possible by late week. If there is a void of any storms through the end of next week (say June 18) for the high plains, then I'm afraid what the trend will be going through the remainder of the month and into July. But as of today (Friday), I'm still cautiously optimistic. Here is the outlook from the Weather Prediction Center for possible rainfall through 7 AM Friday, the 18th.
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