Updated - February 14, 2020

Sorry it's been a while since I updated this blog.   Those that have followed this for a while - you know my "excuse"...  Very little free time to get 'er done.

Over the past 30 days, here is a look at how much precipitation has fallen across the central U.S....



































The trend of the past few months has continued, not only for temperatures but for precipitation. The Heavy wet snow that fell on the 28th of January made a huge impact on soil moisture.  You can see that impact with the bullseye of precipitation from near Liberal through near Greensburg.  Also, the excessively wet conditions continue across the eastern plains into Mississippi Valley.  The wetness has now shown up across much of Texas!

As far as temperatures, the really cold air this winter has only made brief appearances (such as the current episode).  I really believe the Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation have been mostly responsible for the "mild" winter.  Will that continue?  I have a gut feeling it may not last entirely through late winter.  Based on some cycling of weather patterns, it would appear to me that occasional shots of cold will continue into early March (but also mitigated by brief "mild" periods).  If March doesn't end up that cold, then I bet April will!  More on that later.

What is next?

There is a pretty robust Madden Julian Oscillation and you can see that with the bright colors on the bottom left side of the following satellite image...



There has been a pretty good response to upper flow into North America.  Based on one projection....



IF,, and that is a BIG IF, the MJO carries into phase space 2 on the projection above at a significant standard deviation, then it would appear that storm systems may get really active across the central U.S. at the end of February and into the first week of March.  But, that might impact Nebraska and the upper Midwest, but there is also a distinct possibility the impacts would be farther south into much of Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas.  There is a lot of uncertainty!

In phase space 1 and 2 (getting into March), here is what is strongly possible for temperatures and precipitation....




As far as the next 7 days....cold-mild-cold with very little opportunity for significant precipitation.  From the Weather Prediction Center through the end of next week (21st)...



I'll see if I can get an update in later next week....