Update - February 21, 2020

After quite a few weather and climate presentations over the past 2 weeks, I'll share some of those highlights in this posting.

This seasons (since October) forecasting has been particularly challenging (more so than what would be typical) for the central U.S..  Computer forecast models, and not just the American model, have failed miserably many times on type, intensity and location of upcoming weather systems.  For me, I've got some longer range outlooks pretty spot on but have not done so well with others.  

One particular contributor to the weather pattern (at least on a seasonal scale) has been the Arctic Oscillation (AO). In that previous post I did last week on the 14th (you can read that one by clicking here) I mentioned the positive phase of the AO was possibly, and partly, responsible for the relatively mild winter so far.  Lately, the phase has been extremely positive!  My initial outlook back in early November I said "this Winter outlook = very changeable   Averaging out the very cold to rapid warm-ups should yield temperatures near normal for the winter."  Well, there certainly have been many cold fronts but followed with rapid warmups!  But the warmups have lasted longer and the cold has (for the winter) not been overall cold.  The winter (DJF) will end up being anomaly mild (but not a record as many have said).  I did have a cautionary statement since it was early in the new pattern: If the pattern locks into place during the warm phase then it would be warmer than normal.  That's exactly what happened.

As for precipitation in that post: AS far as precipitation - these numerous intrusions of cold and the way the jetstream configuration has been does not bode well for precipitation.  Based on what has happened so far, I would lean towards the dry side.  But, again the pattern has not fully developed so there is still a bit of hope.

For much of the high plains that worked out pretty good.  But other areas have had a pretty good amount of precipitation!  The forcing for more precipitation than expected can be tied to several active Madden Julian Oscillations - and that continues!  But that excessive dry area of especially far western Kansas into eastern Colorado continues to be a concern.

Going forward....

First, here is a map of precipitation that was observed this past 7 days...

That precipitation you see there on the map was primarily snowfall.  That was not well forecast a week in advance.  So, I consider that a "bonus" event which is always good this time of year!

In that previous post I did on the 14th, I discussed the MJO and it's phase and if (emphasized IF) it was one of the strong contributors to the current pattern, then weather systems would get very active at the end of February and into March.  As of this writing, that appears pretty likely.  Here is the current phase of the MJO:

Based on historic MJO events in the current phase space, it gives me more confidence in that increase storm chances going well into March.

Looking at this mornings satellite image:

There was a strong system approaching California and was directly tied to a response in the southern branch of westerlies from that MJO.  This system approaching California will bring widespread precipitation to the central part of the county this weekend.  In fact, I can tie this particular hemispheric upper flow to what happened in late December, producing widespread rain on the 27th and 28th of December! 

Back to the satellite image, the big red X near the top is a disturbance in the strong Jetstream of wind poised to slam into the Pacific NW.  But, the million dollar question is what type of development and eventual path will that take early next week.  There is a small chance that it could strengthen soon enough and dive south where it could provide additional precipitation about Tuesday (for the high plains).  That, IF it happens, would be snow and not rain - along with a lot of wind and much colder temperatures.  Stay tuned with your favorite weather source with that system as we get closer.

Then, based on cycling of the weather pattern, there should be another one of the rapid warmups later in the week.  But, I'm seeing hints on perhaps another system around the 3rd of March, give or take a day or two.  

Going onto March, I think it may stay active with quite a few opportunities for precipitation producing systems.  I'm leaning towards at least normal precipitation.

As I mentioned the past few weeks at the meetings I presented at,  if March ends up near normal in temperatures, then April is almost assuredly going to be "cold".   In fact, lumping March, April and May together I would not be surprised to see that 3 month period average out below normal on temperatures (but as is typical with wild swings of temperatures - especially early).  As far as precipitation, I would lean on those areas that have been wet to continue to be wet.  However, that excessively dry area where the drought developed since fall may have an increased opportunity to get several shots of significant precipitation during that time.  Fingers crossed.   More on that later.

For the next 7 days, here is the outlook for precipitation from the Weather Precipitation Center:

I'll try and update later next week.