Summer Time Pattern - Update 06/18/19

Since the last posting on the 1st of the month (you can read it by clicking here), there have been areas that have dried out - at least on the top several inches.  However, there has still be plenty of rain across the high plains.  The active growing vegetation, generally wet soils, and overall weather pattern has mitigated hot temperatures so far.   Pretty much as expected.   Here is the amount of rainfall since the first of the month:



The latest round overnight (Monday night) was widespread across the plains.  Some locations got over 2 inches.  As of early this afternoon a disturbance aloft was helping to generate additional thunderstorms across Kansas.  On the satellite image, this disturbance is represented by the red X...



Although there will be a risk of severe weather this Tuesday afternoon and evening, another concern will be flooding in some locations.

Side note:  Interestingly where a moderate drought had developed this month across parts of North Dakota....



They are expecting quite a bit of rain during the next week....



For the High Plains, as hinted at in the title of this post, a summer time pattern has developed. But, does this mean hot and dry for the foreseeable future?  No!  Granted, the jet stream has shifted north (as seen on the satellite image above), which is typical as time progresses into summer.  But, as long as there is flow across the central U.S., there will continue to be periodic episodes of weather systems capable of producing thunderstorm complexes.    In the precipitation map above, that is for the period through next Tuesday (25th) morning.   It appears another upper trough will develop across the Rockies by the weekend (21-22) or early next week.  This WILL allow hotter temperatures across the high plains!  But, I doubt not much more than mid-upper 90s and that should last only a few days before another frontal boundary moves through.  In fact, with the upper trough that develops, it should be progressive (won't sit there causing the atmosphere to bake).  This will also allow much below normal temperatures for the Rockies.  I wouldn't be surprised to see pretty good snow across the higher terrain of Colorado with snow levels dropping unseasonably low.

Going into late June and into July, the pattern should promote a few days of "hot" and muggy weather followed by moderating temperatures with a chance for storms.  Then back to hot for a few.  I don't see any indications of the weather settling into a hot, dry and stagnate pattern. going well into July.

As far as Cedar Bluff Reservoir - it's up another 2 feet since the first of the month!  It still has quite a ways to go before it would reach normal elevation.  My July 1 date of reaching full I made on March 11th, will most likely not happen (I only had a 60 percent chance of that happening anyway).  A few BIG complexes of heavy rain on the Smoky Basin could still get it there.  At least it's still rising.