Anyway...as expected May was a really active month. In the last post in early May (you can read it by clicking here) I said: "I expect May to be a really active month and eventually almost everyone across the high plains will have above normal rainfall. But, there will probably be a lot of hail, wind and even tornadoes too. That said, I would expect some areas to have flooding issues during the month."
I wish I was wrong. Not only in Kansas, but for much of the central part of the county this is shaping up to have the potential to be a disastrous spring and summer in regards to not only agriculture, but for infrastructure and local economies (for instance moving the County Stampede out of the Manhattan area).
For a while during the late summer I was having concerns for dryness that was developing across much of the western half of Kansas. April was shaping up to be the driest on record. But there was still hope as there had been quite a few active weather systems. But at the time they were passing well north and south of western Kansas. But, thanks in part to changes across the northern Atlantic Ocean basin, the Equatorial Pacific, and a warming Gulf of Mexico - the weather systems finally had enough boundary layer moisture to work with. Also, west Texas was starting getting wet too. In some areas record rainfall for the month of May fell. Other areas were close. Here is the amount of rainfall that fell across the central part of the U.S. for May:
A phenomenal total of 30.08 inches was observed at a location 2.7 ESE of Rose Hill in Butler County. Even in Dodge City (city limits) there was over 13 inches! At the Dodge City airport there was 8.42" - the fifth wettest May on record.
As far as percent of normal....incredibly some areas it was 5 times what is normal!
Do I need to even post the drought monitor? I will anyway.
Incredible!
So, what is next? The pattern has been set...and has been since last fall. It looks like the feedback mechanism from the antecedent conditions to atmosphere may have started. Also, the active upper level winds should continue, in general, across the central U.S.. What this translates to is for continued opportunities for episodes of active weather of thunderstorms. The feedback from the very wet conditions and growing vegetation (extending into west Texas) will likely mitigate any hot and dry stretches for the foreseeable future. This should translate to below normal temperatures for June, and quite possibility into the typical hotter months of July and August. Does this mean very few or no 100 degree days for the western high plains? For some spots - I think that is a real possibility. This "COULD" be one of those summers when the growing degree days ends up considerably below normal. The combination with late planting of row crops...it should be a concern - but not guaranteed of course.
Here is the rainfall outlook from the Weather Prediction Center through next Saturday morning:
For those reservoirs with record or near record amounts of storage and with rivers continuing in flood stage (especially for Oklahoma) - this outlook if it's even close may have disastrous consequences (even more that it has been).
BTW - does anyone remember what I said about Cedar Bluff Reservoir back on March 11th? "I'm banking on a 100 percent chance that it will go to 2130 (or just 14 feet low) by July 1. I'll put the odds at 60% of reaching conservation "full" (2144 ft) by July 1."
As of this Saturday morning the level of Cedar Bluff was 2130.00! As far as reaching 2144? I still think that as a real possibility although going from 2130 to 2144 (another 14 feet) will require about 70,000 acre feet of water. In other words, as the reservoir fills it spreads out and takes a greater volume of water to raise the elevation. Given the river is flowing - springs are open - and a continued wet pattern, I would up continue my original prediction of a 60 percent chance of it reaching 2144. Wow, wouldn't that be nice?
Ok - I'll TRY and update again this week.
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