In the previous post I did on the 13th, I was expecting this cold. But I also was expecting it to be a little farther west bringing a pretty good possibility of below zero readings to the high plains. Instead, the sub-zero readings were as far west as eastern Kansas. I did mention below normal temperatures for the high plains for the period January 21-31 and indeed that did happen. For example, here is what Dodge City observed....
I've heard from quite a few folks about the mess in the feedlots across much of western Kansas. With so much moisture since the fall and without a lengthy drying period, the pens are full of muck that can't be cleaned up much without really cold weather. Here is a look at the percent of normal of what has fallen since October 1, 2018...
Without checking, I bet for this time of year this has to be in a top 10 for record keeping. If I get some time, I might check into. Regardless, it's been really wet with many areas over 3x the climate normal.
Back in the early Fall, the outlook I gave was for the winter to be near to below normal on temperatures and above normal precipitation, including so. So far (Dec-Jan) it's been a little warmer on average.
Snowfall/precipitation has been above to much above average and many locations (while conversely snowfall has lacked in other areas where it was rain and not snow during the weather events).
With the continued wetness, the long term drought map does not show any area of Kansas in a drought.
So what's next?
The pattern is changing again. The brutal cold that is gripping the midwest is lifting out and moving east as the jetstream will undergo a transition from northwest to southeast to southwest to northeast with time.
Looking at the latest satellite image from this Friday afternoon....
There was a decent storm headed towards the west coast. This system will weaken once it gets past the Rockies late this weekend. But before that happens, it will dump feet of snow on the high country of Colorado. Also, it will cause a surface response across the high plains where much warmer air will result, and unfortunately temporarily increase the wildfire danger.
Once this system moves by, cold air will drop in behind it for the first of the week. The second system (red X on the satellite image above) will approach the central U.S. by mid-week (~6th). Many uncertainties exist for that system since it's many days out. Much of the high plains should be well into the cold air . Precipitation would most likely snow or freezing rain. Specific details are not forecastable with any degree of accuracy at this point but it might be a system that will cause impacts.
Beyond the mid-week system, I continue to expect an active pattern for February and into early March. A day or two either side of February 13 is one target date but with low confidence. In addition, more outbreaks of very cold air can be expected this month and this time centered farther west. I'm pretty confident that precipitation will be above average for February and temperatures below normal causing more impacts to the cattle industry on the plains.
Later, from mid-March and into April we could very possibly have what I call a "false spring" and then get greeted with a late April/early May punch in the gut. I'll discuss that later this winter.
I'll try and update again sometime next week.
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