Quick update - 2/13/19

In the previous post I did on the 1st, (you can read it by clicking here), I mentioned several things I want to discuss.

1) The MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation).

The remnants of the decaying MJO is providing a HUGE swath of Pacific moisture streaming northeast from deep in the tropics.  That can been seen in the satellite image from this morning (white stretching from the bottom center of the image to the southwest U.S.) and this will be a player for a while. 



2) I had a hunch of a February 13th storm (day or two either side) that I had expected for a LONG time.

It looks like that system may be what comes through the central U.S. late Thursday and Friday.  It won't be a huge storm but it will drop pretty cold air and that will set the stage for the next series of storms. There will also be a swath of snow somewhere across Kansas but since it's not quite on the coast, details are uncertain (most likely the norther half). Just check the latest weather.gov forecasts for details.

3) Expecting an active period going into March.

This certainly appears to be panning out.  The jetstream across the Pacific and combined with the southern branch of the westerlies (that band of moisture pointed towards the southwest U.S.) will play a major role in what is to come.  Also, brutally cold air across Siberia and into Canada will make a run towards the U.S.. But, even though the center of the airmass won't make it into the states, the expanse of the cold air will allow for much below normal temperatures for the high plains for the balance of February (after Thursday) that will periodically last into the first week of March.

Several strong upper level systems will be moving across the central U.S., but details of where, when and magnitude of the impacts are not forecastable this far out.  But, I do expect much of the high plains to be covered in snow once we get past Thursday (14th).

Here is the latest precipitation map from the Weather Prediction Center through the 20th.  I do expect this to change going forward.



I'll attempt another update this weekend.  Just be prepared for a cold stretch with occasional snow, that may eventually add up to quite a bit.