Update 10/19/2018

In the previous post I did on the 11th (read it by clicking here), the discussion was on the VERY wet period that was in the process of ending and the expected cold coming on the heals.  As most are aware, the cold behind the system was record setting at some location, but regardless was cold enough to do damage to some of the fall crops, most unfortunately.  I saw some readings down into the single digits, especially where there was decent snow cover.  The snow was not unexpected either as I did mention that too.  However, unexpectedly there was light rain yesterday and last night across much of the high plains.  This COULD be one of the signals I'll be looking for as I make the outlook going into the next growing season.  More on that later.

In the meantime, here is the latest satellite image....




There are a couple of interesting and possibly important features on this map.  First, as I mentioned the rain that fell yesterday and last night had been unexpected when I did the post on the 11th.  It was a weak feature that was "left over" from the pattern that brought the cold.  I did not foresee this moving into the plains and providing support for precipitation.  Presently there is another weak system (the X over central California).  It is another minor system that looks like it could provide support for a tad more rain next week for the high plains (around Tue/Wed or so).  This could be one of those signals for things to come this winter.  More on that later.


Also on the satellite image is the red x on the southeast (bottom right) side of the image above.  This is yet another tropical system in the Pacific that will impact Texas as it moves north and northeast as it weakens.  Wow this flooding across central Texas has been unreal and these additional system will extend and even worsen the flooding.   

Here is the precipitation outlook through the end of next week that is provided by the Weather Prediction Center....

Back to the satellite image, the jetstream (strong winds aloft) that extends from  the tropical pacific across Hawaii (green line on the bottom left) probably won't impact the plains yet, but it is also another signal I'll be watching for this winter.

I've had several ask about favorable field week going well into November (primarily to finish harvesting fall crops).   In general, it appears somewhat favorable going into the first week of November with just a few minor rain events (i.e., the one next Tue/Wed).  I don't expect warm and windy though at least through Halloween. I really don't have a good feeling for November but if I was to take a guess - I would go with normal to above normal temperatures on average and near to below normal on precipitation.  Again, just a wag.

The fall is one of the most difficult times to make an outlook as the new pattern is just now getting established, as I've discussed numerous times in this blog over the years.  It depends on where the forcing for the pattern is located and how much contribution each area is providing that is producing the pattern.  The very wet start to October; the record or near record cold;  the minor systems across the southern Rockies and Great basin;  the excessive rainfall in central Texas; the continued tropical systems moving north into the southern U.S.; the tropical jetstream that is moving out of the tropics and across Hawaii... - these are just SOME of the signals I'll be incorporating into an outlook going forward.  Other things will be considered too.  But what is causing those outcomes?  That is the six million dollar question that I'm trying to determine.

You may have seen the OFFICIAL outlook that was released by the Climate Prediction Center on Thursday the 19th.  I disagree with it!  What I really don't like is their message which is "A mild Winter is expected".  Mild to me implies warm with many days of golfing opportunities.  But mild for winter might really mean above normal temperatures compared to winter temperatures that are generally pretty cold.  Really to have a good idea, I would still need another 3-4 weeks to watch this new pattern unfold.

My initial gut feeling and thoughts is this winter should be much snowier (or maybe more freezing rain) with temperatures at or below normal.  I should say snowier from October 1 through April 30.  My best analog year I found is 2009/2010 (for various reasons). As time gets into November, I should have a much better idea so will fine tune (or completely throw out) that initial gut feeling.