Update - 10/11/18

In the quick post I did on Friday (read it by clicking here) I showed the map of potential rainfall from then until the end of this week.  All-in-all that was a pretty good outlook!.  The largest amount of measured rain was near Overland Park with 11.39" but there were many, many reports of 6 to 10 inches across much of Kansas, western and northwest Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle!  The flooding that ensued was at major levels and there may end up being record marks reaches before all the water recedes.

Back on the 28th of September I mentioned a hard freeze by the middle of October.  There has already been some light freeze conditions in parts of western Kansas (and killing freeze in Nebraska) but the coldest with this current pattern is still a few days away - but get ready!

First, here is a map of rainfall from this wet period ending early this morning (11th)...(click for a larger map)



BTW, the rainfall at the Dodge City airport has already shattered the October record!  The previous wettest October at the airport was 5.00" in 2008 and at the office the total is already 5.95"!  Records go back to 1874!

Looking at the afternoon satellite image....



The flow aloft remains active!  There will be some overrunning of the cold air in place that will generate light rain tonight and for a while of Friday.  The on to the southwest....Hurricane Sergio was moving northeast towards northwest Mexico and the remnants will cross Oklahoma Friday night or Saturday.  More heavy rain is likely across that area.  At the same time, the red X (upper level system) that was approaching western Canada today will dive south into the Rockies over the weekend.  That will help tap into some really chilly air that will be delivered to the high plains late Sunday into Monday.  With the flow aloft, there will likely be a good deal of precipitation with the cold air - yes that means SNOW!  I won't give specifics in this posting as forecasting amounts will depend on exact placement of upper level dynamics.  But, it does appear likely that some areas of the high plains will receive more than six inches of snow!  One source you can check is https://www.weather.gov/ddc/winter.  Replace the "ddc" with the NWS office that covers your area (ict, gld, ama, gid, etc.).

Temperatures will be falling most of Sunday and freezing conditions will have already overspread the high plains by nightfall Sunday.  Morning temperatures Monday will likely be down into the teens across the higher elevations of the high plains (i.e., near the Colorado border) with readings well into the 20s as far east as as Pratt and Medicine Lodge.

Here is the expected precipitation amounts through next Thursday (although the majority will fall before Tuesday)...


After mid-week, the pattern should start to shift a bit so that dryer and "warmer" weather will return and should start to dry things out, although that will take some time as it won't get that warm.   I hope to have some time by next week to go into detail of what to expect going into next Spring.  I'll need some quality time to get an idea.  That update will be coming soon.