Update 09/28/18

In the previous post I did on the 21st (you can read it by clicking here) I discussed it being dry from that point into early October but with perhaps a little bit of precipitation for the first part of this week.  It did rain but most areas got sprinkles and few about 0.05".  I also mentioned several strong frontal passages expected (and they have occurred) and the possibility of the first hard freeze for much of the northern plains and perhaps into the midwest for the period of Sept 28 (today) into the 2nd.  The front that swept into Kansas and Oklahoma this morning was the leading edge of pretty chilly air!  There was widespread low temperatures well into the 20s this morning across the northern plains.  Widespread frost and a light freeze will occur this Friday night/ Saturday morning that will extend into Iowa and Illinois (and a hard freeze into Minnesota).  For Kansas there should be enough cloud cover to prevent any frost - for this time.


The weather pattern for the fall and into next year is currently forming and is getting established. Later in October I'll try and identify some areas of forcing and will attempt to give a very early and preliminary outlook going into next growing season.  Look for this by mid-October.  I'm already seeing some significant changes across the eastern Pacific.  It will be interesting as this settles into the pattern here in a couple of weeks.

For this next seven days attention is drawn to a major hurricane across the eastern Pacific.  Looking at the satellite image from this afternoon....

 

Hurricane Rosa was very powerful and was moving straight north (thanks to those changes across the Pacific that I mentioned above).  The hurricane will weaken as it moves north (cooler waters) but the impacts will be felt across a large area of the southwest U.S. in the form of torrential rainfall.  The remnants will likely  move as far east as western Colorado.  There is a very small chance that it could move farther east which would impact the high plains (but not likely).  Regardless, several of those systems across the Pacific will eventually impact the central U.S. during the next 7 days or so.  Details are HIGHLY uncertain so the map of precipitation provided by the Weather Prediction Center going into the end of next week will likely change.  Here is that map with the current thinking....

 
I will do my best to give an update later next week.  I'm starting to see signs pointing to a major cold push (i.e. a hard freeze into at least Kansas) by mid-October.  Again, hopefully I can find a little free time to update later next week.