Update - 09/21/18

In the post I did on Monday the 17th (to read it click here) I discussed the tropical system that was expected to develop across the Baja area of California (more specifically the Gulf of Baja).  In that post was the map of potential rainfall during provided by the Weather Prediction Center.   Quote "Don't take values or maximum amounts literally.  This is just a first approximation.  The Baja system has not fully developed and the front has not made a move yet.  But, it appears very likely that widespread precipitation across the central plains will occur.  The question is exactly where and how much."
 

This this another example of the intricacies of weather and how predicting exact values even a few days out are nearly impossible.  Widespread precipitation did occur across the plains, BUT some areas got very little.  Plus, it ends up as just a one day event for many.  Here is a look at the rainfall during the 24 hour period ending this Friday morning (09/21) at 7 AM.



The majority of the very heavy rain has shifted quite a bit farther south than what originally appeared possible.  There are several reasons.  First the cold front was a bit stronger and thus ended up moving farther south.  Second, the tropical system did eventually develope as expected.  But the track of the system ended up a bit farther south too!  The result is that the heavy and widespread rains are expected to be centered over Oklahoma instead of north central Kansas as depicted in the early Monday post.    Details of exact tracks of systems (fronts, upper level disturbances, etc. will almost always be off to a degree - that is if they even develop).

Here is the afternoons satellite showing the position of the remnants of the Baja system and the brightness  over much of Oklahoma where the heaviest rains were occurring...

 

As of 420 PM Friday, there had already been nearly a foot of rain southeast of Norman, OK and it wasn't even close to being done!  Many areas of flooding were occurring.  THIS could have been farther west and north where many were drilling winter wheat or harvesting corn!  

 

Looking ahead another very small chance for precipitation is possible early next week (Tue/Wed) but odds are rather small.  

Here is the potential rainfall trough next week provided by the Weather Prediction Center...

 

In general, it should be dry into early October.  There are hints of several strong frontal passages late next week and into the following week (28th-02nd) which may bring the first hard freeze to much of the northern plains and perhaps midwest.  I won't be surprised if there is at least frost into northern Kansas on a few of those mornings.

The weather pattern for the fall and into next year is beginning to form and getting established during this next few weeks.  Later in October I'll try and identify some areas of forcing and will attempt to give a very early and preliminary outlook going into next growing season.  Look for this by mid-October.   I'll also try and get another post done sometime next week to update on the possible mid-week precip.