I know a lot of you that read this blog are producers...producers of grain or producers of livestock (or both). I gave a weather/drought presentation yesterday (Monday the 5th) at a grazing lands drought meeting. Unfortunately I had to leave before the meeting was over as I had another evening presentation to travel to. There was some very useful information shared by others while I was there. There was one presentation in particular that discussed cattle grazing on grass before, during and after a drought. The information he provided was excellent and very eye opening for me. I don't recall all the details, but I plan on getting that information and doing some research on precipitation. I believe that I can provide a risk factor for this spring/summer in holding on to numbers in herds (risk of having to buy expensive feed/hay, overgrazing, damaging the pasture, culling too late when the market gets supersaturated with numbers, etc.). So, hopefully more on that later.
Back to the weather. Unfortunately for the high plains it's more of the same. Weather systems are too far north and somewhat too fast. Some of the tele-connection indices have been very favorable for impactful storms. Just not here.
The AO is favorable for Arctic air - but this time it's across the other side of the hemisphere (Europe and Asia)...
The east coast has been pounded this past week Yesterday and today a major blizzard was/is moving from the Dakotas, northeast Nebraska/Iowa and on east. For the high plains we're on the dry and windy side...and VERY windy! Despite relatively cool temperatures, humidity levels have tanked due to very little moisture in the downslope wind. Wildfire potential is in the catastrophic range!Here is this mornings satellite image of the major storm across parts of the midwest...
Out west, the eastern Pacific remains pretty active with a lot of flow but it's "split up" and may not bring much benefit to the plains.
So, back in the fall and periodically this winter, I've mentioned that our opportunities for significant precipitation would be fewer this year - and those opportunities would be spaced at a longer time period. Each time those opportunities (weather systems) misses the plains....well I think you know the outcome.
For this month, there will still be some more opportunities, but again only a few. This dry stretch since October 7th ties for the longest stretch on record at Dodge City (and many areas across the plains) for the same time period (October 7 through March 5).
It's interesting that in those other dry years, there was actually good moisture later on. In 1880, May, July and August were all wet. In 1876, it was a very wet March! In 1989 it was a wet May through Summer. Does that mean it will occur again? Not likely. But I do know that in 1989 our hemisphere was experiencing a weak La Nina - similar to the current one. However, I'm not sure what phase the PDO and AMO were in and that would likely mean a different weather regime. I'll have to check on that when I get time.
So for now - more of the same I'm afraid. Here is the outlook from the Weather Prediction Center through March 13...
The light green color on the map is for amounts around 0.01" to tenth of an inch - i.e., not much if any.
Also, the latest outlook for the summer is in from the Climate Prediction Center with the odds shifted towards favoring hotter than normal and dryer than normal for June-July-August. I can't argue against it (odds tilted towards dryer and hotter). But, keeping in mind that there is still that tiny glimmer of hope - that so far has not panned out. Stay the course I guess.
I'll try to update again late this weekend.
BTW - that "gut" feeling back in October about a March 5th blizzard? I missed it by a couple of hundred miles LOL.
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