Update 3/16/18

I've discussed in posts for quite a while that the opportunities for precipitation would be fewer this winter and farther in between.  The latest opportunity moved through yesterday and today (Friday).  There was finally a bit of precipitation across western Kansas with the largest amount I saw at 0.24" northwest of Lakin in Kearny County.  That is the first measurable precipitation in some time.  However, most of the high plains got nothing more than spits of precipitation (some snow today across NW Kansas) and howling wind!  The system responsible for the wind and scattered precip was lifting away. 

Now attention shifts to the next opportunity that will arrive late Sunday into Monday. 

The next system is denoted by the red X on the satellite image will arrive late this weekend...



Will this system go too far north just like the rest have been doing leaving southwest Kansas and points south high and dry?  Well, there is actually reason to believe it will be farther south and I look no further than the North Atlantic Oscillation.  The index has been strongly negative and this helped to produce a high latitude block near Greenland.  The block is slowly retrograding west.  At the same (see below) time the Arctic Oscillation has also been strongly negative.  Usually that forces storm tracks farther south.  Will it happen this time?  It's going to be a close call again.  I feel confident that points north and east of a Syracuse-Scott City-Ness City-Larned-Medicine Lodge line will get at least 3/4 of an inch of rain.  I won't be surprised if a few spots get close to 2 inches, most likely across north central or central Kansas.

For the rest of the area south of that line in Kansas, it's too soon to call.  The storm will have to move well south of it's projected path.  Possible, but not too likely.  On south into west Texas - it looks like a lot of wind again with not much chance of rain.

Here is the latest projected outlook from the Weather Prediction Center through next Friday the 23rd.



I'm in the busiest time for my NWS job so I might not get a chance to update for another week to 10 days, but I'll try.  I'm doing a presentation at the 3i Show in Dodge City at 2 PM Thursday and will discuss the climate/weather pattern we've been in this past 18 months.  If you're around, stop by for the discussion.

FWIW, here are the AO and NAO charts I referenced above.