Update - 08/29/17

What has happened to the pattern?  Well, it's now late enough in the summer that the upper atmospheric wind currents have reached their lowest average magnitudes (averaged across the northern hemisphere).  The general pattern that developed last fall is falling apart and won't start reorganizing for another 4 to 6 weeks.  I really hope that what we have now persists for that long (i.e., limited rainfall through September).

Since the last post on the 17th (read it by clicking here), the following is the accumulated rainfall:

That is quite a range of totals across the high plains (and especially eastern Kansas and western Missouri).

Here is the latest satellite image:

The North American Monsoon is GONE!  There continues to be scattered late afternoon high terrain showers and storms, only because of the residual moisture.  But the flow from the deep tropics into the west has ceased.  It could come back briefly before the end of September.  Also, the upper ridge across the Rockies is about as strong and robust as it has been all summer.  The resultant flow aloft across the high plains is north to south.  Surface moisture has dried out considerably.  This is partly due to "Harvey" that has pounded Texas and Louisiana. Usually a system in that area of the Gulf states plus the presence of a big upper ridge across the west is detrimental to the high plains receiving any rain.  Since the remnants of Harvey are slow moving, I don't see much hope for improvement in rain chances for at least a week (or more).  So, those areas that have really dried out lately will suffer.

Here is the outlook from the Weather Prediction Center:

BTW, next week or maybe even this Friday I will post about the summer rainfall for the high plains.  It's going to show a remarkable difference across short distances.  More on that later.

Finally, a look at the latest US Drought Monitor.  Some areas have improved, some have gotten drier.

I'll be discussing the fall outlook (and into winter) sometime in September.  I have a week long conference coming up in a couple of weeks and some other issues that need attention, so I'm not sure when I can get to that.  Stay tuned.