Quick update - 08/17/17

In the post I did on Monday the 14th (read it by clicking here) I discussed the notion that the high plains was going to have an early fall - others ideas, not mine.   More on that towards the end of the post.

First, even though there was "some" rain across the western corn belt, drought conditions have worsened in the past week. Here is the latest available:

There was improvement across TX and OK at least.

For the next week (through August 24) the Weather Prediction Center is expecting some improvement across the corn belt - or at least some rain and with a return of the North American Monsoon (note the precip from Mexico into Colorado).

Back to the "early fall".  I've talked to several folks that are under the assumption that since it's been relatively cool and wet across much of the high plains since the last week of July, that an early fall was in the offing.  I'm assuming they mean we'll have an early freeze.

As I've stated numerous times in this blog, the pattern that produces the spring and summer weather, will change completely during the fall.  Having said that, I wanted to look at some numbers. 

The dramatic cool-down began on July 27 for the high plains.  For "most" of the area, it has been relatively cool and wet since then.   For Dodge City, the average temperature from July 27 through August 17 was about 4 1/2 degrees below normal. Going back since 1875 and looking at that exact period, this year ranks as the 18th coolest.   I took the top 15 coolest periods (again July 27 through August 17) for Dodge City and then looked at when the first freeze (32 degrees) occurred.   The result? On average, the first freezing temperature occurred 7.6 days after the 1981-2010 climatological average.  Only 3 of those years had an "early" freeze, and October 9 was the earliest date.  The first 28 degree temperature (killing freeze) occurred on average 2.7 degrees later than normal.  So what this says, is that based solely on climatology and with a similar cool late July and early August, there most likely will NOT be an early freeze.  Again, the pattern starts to change during the fall so at this point it's impossible to forecast.  Just a guess based on history. 

Here is the graph of those numbers.