Monday, April 3, 2017

Update - 04/03/17

In the post I did on the 26th (you can read it by clicking here), I discussed the multiple weather systems that were lined up that would hopefully benefit the high plains with greatly needed precipitation.   I even mentioned that some areas would get "too" much rain which is hard to believe.  Most of the area got a good soaking from the several systems that moved through  this past week.
Here is a map of the approximate amount of rainfall that was observed ending Sunday morning:



It's incredible that this much fell given that the moisture from the Gulf Of Mexico was NOT at a premium but something called the "warm conveyor belt" was set up just right that deeper moisture across the south central plains was lifted above the colder boundary layer across the central plains.  I shook my head in amazement when I heard several producers seriously ask when it was going to quit raining.  WOW!  Well, they may soon get their wish!

The last in a series of these storm systems will move through this Monday night and through Tuesday.  Then, that may be it for a while. Here is the Monday morning satellite image showing this next system.



























The storm that brought the Friday/Saturday precipitation was moving slowly past Kansas City this morning.  It has "wiped out" good moisture for the next system (denoted by the red X).  But this next system will energetic enough and the atmosphere set up just right that a relatively narrow band of significant rain/snow will occur as it moves out into the plains, despite the lower amount of available boundary layer moisture.

Here is the map showing possible amounts suggested by the Weather Prediction Center:



There are other systems out across the Pacific but now the pattern appears to be shifting back to the north, at least for a while.  Beyond this early weeks storm (ending Tuesday night), for the high plains I don't see much chance for appreciable amounts of rain through at least April 10 (likely much longer). Farther east there will still be opportunities though.

The biggest concern I would have going forward will be the chance of a significant freeze somewhere between the 12th and 19th of the month.  Before, and especially after, temperatures will be rebounding.  In fact the last 10 days of April could be shaping up to be very warm.

I wouldn't be surprised that in about 3 weeks we're going to be asking "when is it going to rain again?".   In other words, don't count on this recent wet spell as being the norm going into spring. I'll give more insight on prospects for the growing season in a week or two.  I'm still not completely sold on dry, average, or wet.   I am still expecting a pretty active period from late April into early May and then especially around the end of May (typical for Memorial day weekend).  But how far west is the question?  But beyond that, it could go right into summer.  Again, more later.


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