Feed bales will be flying - Update 12/10/2016

This is just a quick update on the cold and "potential" for a storm.  On the post I did on the 5th (read it by clicking here), I discussed a system that was dropping southeast out of the far NW and would bring some snow.  After the system went by, the largest amount I saw in the plains was about 4 inches in far north central Kansas.  Light fluffy snow with hardly any moisture content did fall farther south but did nothing to cause problems or unfortunately to benefit soil moisture.  I also discussed the arrival of the cold and the up-and-down that was to be expected for the high plains.  Temperatures have "warmed" up to seasonal values for this current weekend and that will extend into Monday.  But, then the bottom falls out again, and this time it could potentially be even colder than the first surge (I discussed this too and was to be expected).  For a while now I've discussed the brutal cold and snow that had been across the hemisphere (Eurasia and Siberia) and was expected to "slosh" back to this side.  Look at temperatures early this afternoon across Canada!

click for larger map




This is the coldest air so far this season for that part of our hemisphere.   That source region won't change anytime soon.

Looking at the satellite image (click for larger version)...
























The red X1 and X2 will move east during the next several days and will unleash more of that cold air across Canada by Tuesday for the central plains.  Hardest hit will be the northern plains and midwest.  But that won't be the only outbreak of cold.  More will be coming later.

In that previous post on the 5th I also mentioned a time frame for perhaps the next potential storm for the high plains.  Despite nothing showing up on the computer forecast models at the time, I had the period from the 18th through 22nd on my mind.  I'm sticking with that period and there is actually something showing up that "might" help that happen!  On the satellite image above, there are two very important features.  One is an anomalously strong and moist flow of air from the deep tropics up across Hawaii and then curving east, slamming into California.  Guess what?  During a La Nina (which the "experts" with the Climate Prediction Center and others have claimed to be going on), this type of flow should NOT exist!  Ha!  More in the coming weeks on this.

Also on the satellite image is the X3.  This appears to be a new system that is just starting to form.  I have a hunch that this particular system just might become a weather maker for the high plains in a week to 10 days.  I'll keep and eye on that and update later in the week.

In the meantime, nothing or very little moisture is expected across the high plains during the next 7 days.  There will likely be fluffy meaningless snow with the cold surges but no impacts are expected.

Here is the Weather Prediction Center's outlook...

Look at how much moisture is expected along the west coast!  WOW!  For the high plains of Kansas through West Texas and eastern New Mexico, as I mentioned, not much if anything.   But maybe there is some hope by next weekend and for the period leading up to Christmas.

The screaming message...a brief "warmup" followed by the deep freeze once again by Tuesday and this should persist for a week or two or three (except maybe a day or two of a brief moderation). At this point it is appearing that average temperatures for December will end up below normal across much of the area.  I'm thinking there will be a lot of breaking of ice and supplemental feeding for livestock.

Also, a gut feeling is for a "white" Christmas for much of Kansas and Nebraska (and maybe even the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle region. Ha, we'll see how that one goes, i.e. don't tell anyone. ;-)