In the last update I did on February 27 (click here), I discussed the blocking located off the southwest U.S. that had been occurring all fall and winter. In fact go all the way back to late summer and you will see that I had a concern about the warm waters off the SW coast that might prevent California from getting the catastrophic flooding that everyone was predicting.
About mid-December the pattern across the US shifted east and essentially cut off the precipitation for the plains. Based on atmospheric forcing (much of that was across the north Pacific) and other indicators, I was NOT expecting the sudden shift! Thus, I had a really bad forecast for much of the late winter. My confidence in the pattern was shaken and it still remains "up-in-the-air".
Looking at the current situation...
Again, I have not looked at much during the past few weeks, but based on a lot of the forecasts and computer models there should have been a pretty good chance for rain across much of the plains, especially the south plains. The upper level low and upper level jet stream configuration did develop but became MUCH more amplified and pretty much took the plains out of the game, for now.
Looking at the satellite from this morning...
That upper level low? All the south into central Mexico! This is unreal!!!! There has been a lot of snow, especially in the higher elevations. I bet by the time this moves out there will be all-time record amounts of March snow in that part of the area. Absolutely crazy! With the low being this far south, it has kept the rainfall out of the plains. The lower Mississippi Valley, however, has been pounded. Look at how much has fallen in the past 7 days (look at the scale on the right)....
BTW, the amounts in Mexico are not accurate on this map, so disregard anything south of the Rio Grande.
Also on the satellite map you may notice the jet stream (the green lines) way up north. That has prevented and continues to prevent cold air from invading the plains. That is a GOOD thing, right! Which brings us to the question, "is it going to get cold again". I hear that the wheat has jointed as far north as the OK/KS border (at least in some fields). It's only March 10 and the average date of the last spring freeze is well into April. Without looking at much weather lately, I really think that temperatures well into the 20s (as far south as perhaps the TX Panhandle) are pretty likely. Unfortunately, that might not occur for another several weeks. Not good.
I'll take a closer look as I get a chance and update this blog sometime this weekend or first of the week.
In the meantime, the upper low in Mexico should (emphasizing should) move back into south or central Texas by the weekend. Rainfall will be limited northwest and west of the track, but it appears more heavy rain is expected across areas that have already received copious amounts. Unfortunately the high plains will probably receive a little or maybe even nothing.
Again, I'll try and update by the end of the weekend or first of next week.
No comments:
Post a Comment