Update - January 23, 2020

The active weather regime continues across the central U.S., and has impacted parts of the high plains.  In the previous post I did on the 16th (you can read that one by clicking here), I discussed the MJO that was currently in progress and was probably responsible for the uptick in storms at that time, and that it should continue to provide opportunities for another 10 to 14 days.  I discussed one "small" opportunity due about Tuesday (and it did happen) and perhaps a more impactful storm in the 24th/25th time frame.  There had been little help in forecast models as most had not indicated much at all (at that time).  The possible 24th/25th storms is NOT the one bringing rain and snow to north central/southeast Kansas, Iowa, eastern Nebraska this Thursday afternoon.  That particular possibility of an impactful storm is tied to what "might" happen early next week.  So, that appears to be off schedule by 2 to 3 days.

Before I discuss that possible storm - and beyond....

Here is a map of the estimated precipitation during this past 7 day period....



As expected in that previous post I did, Oklahoma, southeast Kansas and Texas got quite a bit of (mainly rain) during that period.  Farther west, as expected, amounts were quite a bit less but at least there was decent moisture (January-winter standards).  With that additional moisture, a limited area of the drought had improved (mainly eastern fringes).  Here is the latest assessment...




BTW, according to the Climate Prediction Center there won't be much improvement for the High Plains through April.  Texas is another story with removal likely (which would have impacts on the high plains weather this spring).  I'll try and touch on that outlook in later postings when I get an opportunity (free time)....




Looking at this afternoon's satellite image....



An active Madden Julian Oscillation continued impacting the upper level flow across the Pacific and ultimately into the U.S..  It can be partly depicted on the image with the bright colors in the bottom left.  The poleward transport of latent heat release is mirrored on the southern hemisphere side.  The position and intensity of the MJO is resulting in increased momentum in the jet stream impacting the U.S. storms and also into western Mexico.

There is quite a bit of uncertainty going forward with this MJO (that has been pretty robust), depending on what computer model schemes are used.  One, provided by the CPC, has it dying out in about the current position (Western Pacific).



Other schemes have the MJO progressing into phase space 8, 1 and even 2 over the next 3 weeks (influences into the western Hemisphere and Indian Ocean)...




So, going forward for the next month there is quite a bit of uncertainty using the MJO as a predictor.  If the CFS MJO forecast (the image above) is anywhere near accurate, the composites of past MJO's in the predicted phase spaces would yield an increasing threat of cold for February (but not much suggestion for precipitation). Then, using the argument about a cycling pattern (I'm a big proponent)  still points to an active and colder than average February.  However, relying on that technique (soley) led me down the wrong path for December (and it looks like January too) as far as temperatures.  Back in the fall/early winter I suggested that the period December through February would be near to below normal on temperatures.  So far, it's not anywhere close!  If February does end up much colder than normal, then the period of DJF just might average out to what I expected.  But now I'm having reservations about February being that cold.  I'm still going to stick with it with the most likely time for really cold weather from about the 8th through 20th.  I'll adjust that thinking in a couple of weeks.

In addition to the above, the Arctic Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation have been strongly positive (suggesting the really cold air has been bottled up across the higher latitudes).  Those indices are not forecast (accuracy is often poor) to dip much - although that could change as we get into February.





Finally, back to the previous post about the potentially impactful storm for the 24th/25th (which now appears to be early next week instead).  Computer models, at this point this Thursday afternoon, will be of  NO help as their solutions have been all over the place.  My gut feeling is that there will still be a storm.  The million dollar question is will be across Nebraska?  Eastern Kansas?  Oklahoma and east? Or as far west as the high plains?  I still think the high plains could be a target initially and intensifying going east.  But then the question begs "what type of precip?".  At this point, since the potential storm energey is WAY out across the Pacific, there is just no predictability.  Choose your most trusted weather source for local weather and start paying attention later this weekend for details.  I won't have a chance to add anything to this blog until early next week.

Update - January 16, 2020

In the previous post I did on the 3rd (you can read that by clicking here) I discussed that most of the high plains would be dry through about the 14th through 17th.  For the high plains there wasn't much from the storm that occurred a week ago, but eastern Kansas got a pretty good amount, AGAIN!  Here is the precipitation during the past 14 days....



In that previous posting I also mentioned, that despite computer models being dry through the 20th, that there might be a pretty good opportunity around the 14th through 17th period.  Well, it looks like that is going to pan out pretty nicely! The current storm that is poised to bring rain, ice and a little snow will overspread much of the area through Friday (ending quickly west to east).  Check your favorite weather source for the forecast on this particular storm. Some areas (especially across Oklahoma, southeast Kansas and Texas) are going to get quite a bit of moisture (inches)!  Even parts of the high plains will get measurable moisture (mostly a tenth to a third of an inch - and heavier as you go east).

Here was the satellite from earlier today....




It is a pretty complicated pattern right now with, what I think, is a pretty good contribution to the atmospheric flow from a decent Madden Julian Oscillation (you can see part of that in the bottom left corer - bright colors).   The positioning of the MJO should benefit the high plains for about 10 days to 2 weeks, as far as precipitation.  The opportunities are from the current storm; a small one around Tuesday of next week (give or take a day); and perhaps an even bigger and impactful storm around the 24th/25th time frame!  Here is the latest outlook for precipitation amounts from the Weather Prediction Center through next Thursday.....



One aspect of this pattern is the really cold weather has either been bottled up across the higher latitudes of our hemisphere or has spilled into the Europe and Siberian side.  That might not hold up much going forward.  I'm feeling that the balance of January and for much of February (at least the first 20 days) will be colder than average.  That is NOT saying there won't be mild days, because there will.  But averaging it all out that period should be south of normal.  More on that later as that "could" mean quite a bit of snow during that period too.

I'll try and update again around the 22nd.

Update - January 3, 2020

Happy New Year - and hopefully it will not be a brutal one weatherwise!

December just ended with a very beneficial storm system for a lot (not all) of the high plains.  Here is a map of estimated precipitation:



For a December storm - it was BIG as far as precipitation!  For the cold season very little will be lost to evaporation so this should carry into late Winter, at least.  Will there be more?

In the last posting I did on the 11th (you can read that by clicking here), I said:

Winter (through the end of February) - overall dry with numerous outbreaks of cold, some bitterly.  Now having said overall dry - it will take only a couple of significant storms that "hit" just right and they could bring precipitation amounts to closer to normal.  But, that's an IF they are efficient producing storms.  I do think there will be several of those significant storms.  But there will likely be prolonged dry stretches, with wind unfortunately.

Early Spring - I would count on at least a couple of significant winter storms (i.e, blizzards).

So, there you go.  We just had a significant storm that "hit" just right.  Will there be another?  Most likely but it may be a while.  Plus, the next "big" one could be white with wind.  I should say will be.  It is winter after all.

The precipitation did improve drought conditions.  Here is the latest drought map:

 

My "gut feeling" for December (temperatures) was  a huge bust!  I thought that December would be colder than normal.  Far from it!  I also thought that significant outbreak of cold would arrive across the high plains the last few days of December and into the first week of January.  NOT!  Now, I did feel pretty good about that feeling a couple of weeks ago.  If you didn't see or hear, Beetles Alaska had all time cold for December and the coldest I saw there was 61 below zero!  Good lord!  That would have been the source to plunge the U.S. into a DEEP freeze.  But, the overall pattern across the northern hemisphere is NOT acting as I thought it would or expected.  So the brutal cold stayed north.  That pattern not behaving could impact my initial thought for the three month winter period as mentioned above in blue.

I'm trying to figure out what is going on.  I might have found an answer, or partial.

The following map of ocean temperature anomalies shows some very interesting data:



First, the warming across the northern Pacific has trended cooler, which isn't too unusual for winter.  The ocean temperatures supporting a weak El Nino continued, especially at the dateline.  So really nothing earth shaking.  But look at the ridiculous warm anomaly east of Australia and the ridiculous cold anomaly west of Australia.   That dipole is crazy!  

 

That could be partly responsible for the dryness and heat that has persisted down there for some time.  It could also be feeding into the overall hemispheric flow aloft.  That just a speculation.  That same dipole could also be responsible for  a developing MJO across the Maritime Continents .   That location, for January, would favor warmer than normal temperatures across the eastern half of the U.S. but also would favor a period or two of precipitation chances across the high plains going through much of January.

So, even though computer models are suggesting DRY through at least the 20th of January, I suspect that there might be a pretty good opportunity around the 14th-17th period.  Anything before that, if it occurred, would be very minimal as the gulf moisture source is cutoff for now.

It's becoming increasing difficult to update this blog, again as it's on my own time and my own time is limited.  If I every retire from the NWS...well updating this blog daily might be possible.

I'll try again around the 13th.
 

Update - December 11, 2019

Unfortunately this will have to a be a short post. 

I will need some free time to give much detail about the weather pattern into the growing season.  I hope to be able to do that sometime during the week of 12/16.

Looking at this afternoons satellite image....

The red L across the Gulf of Alaska will most likely be the next significant weather maker for the plains.  However, it will undergo many changes before making it to the central plains.  Thus, any details of timing, type of precipitation or intensity are not predictable.  Sure, some computer models have been robust with sensible weather.   But this far out (time and space) just about any solution seems possible (from absolutely nothing to a decent amount of precipitation).  Stay abreast by monitoring your trusted weather source.

Here is a map of precipitation that has occurred this past 2 weeks....

Not much.  But, this is the driest part of the year, so it's not too surprising.

From previous posts, the cycle of weather patterns for this year started in early October.  I need more time to analysis the weather systems across the globe in detail, but I "think" we're starting to transition into the second phase of that pattern. Until I get a chance to do that (again hoping for later next week of the 16th), I really haven't changed my thinking to much.  That is:

Winter (through the end of February) - overall dry with numerous outbreaks of cold, some bitterly.  Now having said overall dry - it will take only a couple of significant storms that "hit" just right and they could bring precipitation amounts to closer to normal.  But, that's an IF they are efficient producing storms.  I do think there will be several of those significant storms.  But there will likely be prolonged dry stretches, with wind unfortunately.

Early Spring - I would count on at least a couple of significant winter storms (i.e, blizzards).

More next week.

Update - November 25, 2019

I haven't had much time to post in this blog about the current outlook into winter and next spring.  As I've mentioned numerous times, the pattern that develops in the fall (usually the first week of October) will start to show a pattern of cycle amplitudes and frequencies.  That hasn't happened yet (meaning the repeating nature has not shown up).  I need another week or two to start to nail it down with any confidence.  However, my early thoughts of below normal temperatures and below normal precipitation for the high plains for at least December, January, and February has not changed much.  Read back on the previous post I did (you can read it by clicking here).

Give me another couple of weeks to really dissect the pattern and go forward from now into the growing season.

In the meantime, here was the latest satellite image as of late today (11/25)....

This was showing a very energetic and active pattern!  The first system to impact the plains will be tomorrow (Tuesday) followed by a pretty good precipitation maker for Thursday night into Friday night (brought by the low pressure system west of Baja California), followed by yet another towards the weekend.  Each system will have a different track so some areas will get a whole lot more precipitation than others.  You really should just check the local NWS offices for the latest for this complicated period (next 7 days).  Go to weather.gov and click on your area.  BTW, after you have done that, go to the URL address bar and add /winter for a look at winter products.  For instance,   weather.gov/dodgecity/winter, or weather.gov/goodland/winter, etc.

Here is the potential for precipitation through early next Monday - from the Weather Predication Center....

 
 I'll try and update by next Monday.  I want to discuss some of the important features that have shown up lately and how that "might" impact the weather going forward. 

Update - November 9, 2019

The changing weather pattern continues to get settled into place as of early November.  Longtime readers of this blog have heard this before - the "new" weather pattern across the northern hemisphere begins to take shape during the transition from summer into fall as the flow aloft intensifies.  Areas of forcing, or contribution to the pattern, are unknown.  This forcing might be transfer of latent heat from oceans (tropical to higher latitude), mountain ranges, landmass interactions, and even external forces (energy from the sun), etc.  So, this years pattern is really in its infancy and I could only guess what is forcing the flow aloft.  Once the flow aloft gets settled, it will transition into cycles of troughs and ridges that tend to get anchored at locations across the hemisphere. 

Back on October 18th in that posting (PLEASE take a look at that one by clicking here) I said right off the bat "The weather pattern continues to change across the high plains - and not necessarily in favor of crop producers!"   I haven't changed that thinking - but that thought was based more on a gut feeling as the new weather pattern was VERY young.

Looking at this mornings satellite image....

There is/was a lot going on across the Pacific.  One system will be riding up into southwest Canada and then will drop southeast across the plains by Monday.  This will unleash yet ANOTHER very cold airmass! But this cold air will only last a couple of days for the high plains.  Farther east and northeast it will persist for a while.   This will be one of many strong cold intrusions that we've had so far.  That is one clue for this winter and going into the growing season.  That is, cold fronts may be numerous this winter which would translate to periods of very cold days/nights.  But, because of the flow aloft configuration, the cold will likely be moderated by rapid warm-ups, especially for the high plains.  Title this Winter outlook = very changeable   Averaging out the very cold to rapid warm-ups should yield temperatures near normal for the winter.

Caution:  The pattern is still forming.  Is there a chance that the pattern gets "locked into place" at some point?  Yes.   What would that mean?  If it locks into the pattern when intrusions of cold are prevalent then expect below normal temperatures as an average for the winter.  Conversely, if the pattern locks into place during the warm phase then it would be warmer than normal.  Honestly, I need another 3 weeks (give or take) to get a better feeling as the pattern starts to settle down.  I would lean at this point to averaging out to colder than normal.

As far as precipitation - these numerous intrusions of cold and the way the jetstream configuration has been does not bode well for precipitation.  Based on what has happened so far, I would lean towards the dry side.  But, again the pattern has not fully developed so there is still a bit of hope.  There could be a system producing something across the high plains by next weekend (the 16th or 17th).  That depends on the evolution of the jetstream across the Pacific.  

I'll end this post with something pretty interesting, as far as history of weather is concerned.

At Dodge City, this past October was the 6th coldest on record.  At this point, it appears that November "may" end up colder than normal.  Looking at the record books, the top ten cold Octobers followed by a colder than average November....1911 was one of those years.   There was also very similar Pacific Ocean temperatures in 1911 compared to the current situation.  In 1911, the sun spot cycle was somewhat similar (minimum period like now).  And even September 1911 was very hot, like this year.  Hmmmm. 

Oct 1911 -3.0 degrees, 3.2 inches of snow

Nov 1911 -5.1 degrees, 5.1 inches of snow

Dec 1911 -4.9 degrees, 15.4 inches of snow

Jan 1912 -14.2 degrees, 2.9 inches of snow

Feb 1912 -3.9 degrees, 19.7 inches of snow

Mar 1912 -13.9 degrees, 11.2 inches of snow

Apr 1912 -1.1 degrees, trace of snow

May 1912 Frost on the 16th

BRUTAL!

Can that repeat?  Yes to an extent.  Will it?  Highly doubt it but it makes one wonder with the similarities.  The current pattern we're experiencing would NOT support that.  But again, it hasn't settled into that specific regime yet.

I'll try and update by the 15th.

For those looking

Personal obligations have prevented me from doing an update.  I'll get one out Friday (hopefully afternoon but it may be evening).

The previous post  http://swkswx.blogspot.com/2019/10/update-101819.html