December just ended with a very beneficial storm system for a lot (not all) of the high plains. Here is a map of estimated precipitation:
For a December storm - it was BIG as far as precipitation! For the cold season very little will be lost to evaporation so this should carry into late Winter, at least. Will there be more?
In the last posting I did on the 11th (you can read that by clicking here), I said:
Winter (through the end of February) - overall dry with numerous outbreaks of cold, some bitterly. Now having said overall dry - it will take only a couple of significant storms that "hit" just right and they could bring precipitation amounts to closer to normal. But, that's an IF they are efficient producing storms. I do think there will be several of those significant storms. But there will likely be prolonged dry stretches, with wind unfortunately.
Early Spring - I would count on at least a couple of significant winter storms (i.e, blizzards).
So, there you go. We just had a significant storm that "hit" just right. Will there be another? Most likely but it may be a while. Plus, the next "big" one could be white with wind. I should say will be. It is winter after all.
The precipitation did improve drought conditions. Here is the latest drought map:
My "gut feeling" for December (temperatures) was a huge bust! I thought that December would be colder than normal. Far from it! I also thought that significant outbreak of cold would arrive across the high plains the last few days of December and into the first week of January. NOT! Now, I did feel pretty good about that feeling a couple of weeks ago. If you didn't see or hear, Beetles Alaska had all time cold for December and the coldest I saw there was 61 below zero! Good lord! That would have been the source to plunge the U.S. into a DEEP freeze. But, the overall pattern across the northern hemisphere is NOT acting as I thought it would or expected. So the brutal cold stayed north. That pattern not behaving could impact my initial thought for the three month winter period as mentioned above in blue.
I'm trying to figure out what is going on. I might have found an answer, or partial.
The following map of ocean temperature anomalies shows some very interesting data:
First, the warming across the northern Pacific has trended cooler, which isn't too unusual for winter. The ocean temperatures supporting a weak El Nino continued, especially at the dateline. So really nothing earth shaking. But look at the ridiculous warm anomaly east of Australia and the ridiculous cold anomaly west of Australia. That dipole is crazy!
That could be partly responsible for the dryness and heat that has persisted down there for some time. It could also be feeding into the overall hemispheric flow aloft. That just a speculation. That same dipole could also be responsible for a developing MJO across the Maritime Continents . That location, for January, would favor warmer than normal temperatures across the eastern half of the U.S. but also would favor a period or two of precipitation chances across the high plains going through much of January.
So, even though computer models are suggesting DRY through at least the 20th of January, I suspect that there might be a pretty good opportunity around the 14th-17th period. Anything before that, if it occurred, would be very minimal as the gulf moisture source is cutoff for now.
It's becoming increasing difficult to update this blog, again as it's on my own time and my own time is limited. If I every retire from the NWS...well updating this blog daily might be possible.
I'll try again around the 13th.
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