Update - January 23, 2020

The active weather regime continues across the central U.S., and has impacted parts of the high plains.  In the previous post I did on the 16th (you can read that one by clicking here), I discussed the MJO that was currently in progress and was probably responsible for the uptick in storms at that time, and that it should continue to provide opportunities for another 10 to 14 days.  I discussed one "small" opportunity due about Tuesday (and it did happen) and perhaps a more impactful storm in the 24th/25th time frame.  There had been little help in forecast models as most had not indicated much at all (at that time).  The possible 24th/25th storms is NOT the one bringing rain and snow to north central/southeast Kansas, Iowa, eastern Nebraska this Thursday afternoon.  That particular possibility of an impactful storm is tied to what "might" happen early next week.  So, that appears to be off schedule by 2 to 3 days.

Before I discuss that possible storm - and beyond....

Here is a map of the estimated precipitation during this past 7 day period....



As expected in that previous post I did, Oklahoma, southeast Kansas and Texas got quite a bit of (mainly rain) during that period.  Farther west, as expected, amounts were quite a bit less but at least there was decent moisture (January-winter standards).  With that additional moisture, a limited area of the drought had improved (mainly eastern fringes).  Here is the latest assessment...




BTW, according to the Climate Prediction Center there won't be much improvement for the High Plains through April.  Texas is another story with removal likely (which would have impacts on the high plains weather this spring).  I'll try and touch on that outlook in later postings when I get an opportunity (free time)....




Looking at this afternoon's satellite image....



An active Madden Julian Oscillation continued impacting the upper level flow across the Pacific and ultimately into the U.S..  It can be partly depicted on the image with the bright colors in the bottom left.  The poleward transport of latent heat release is mirrored on the southern hemisphere side.  The position and intensity of the MJO is resulting in increased momentum in the jet stream impacting the U.S. storms and also into western Mexico.

There is quite a bit of uncertainty going forward with this MJO (that has been pretty robust), depending on what computer model schemes are used.  One, provided by the CPC, has it dying out in about the current position (Western Pacific).



Other schemes have the MJO progressing into phase space 8, 1 and even 2 over the next 3 weeks (influences into the western Hemisphere and Indian Ocean)...




So, going forward for the next month there is quite a bit of uncertainty using the MJO as a predictor.  If the CFS MJO forecast (the image above) is anywhere near accurate, the composites of past MJO's in the predicted phase spaces would yield an increasing threat of cold for February (but not much suggestion for precipitation). Then, using the argument about a cycling pattern (I'm a big proponent)  still points to an active and colder than average February.  However, relying on that technique (soley) led me down the wrong path for December (and it looks like January too) as far as temperatures.  Back in the fall/early winter I suggested that the period December through February would be near to below normal on temperatures.  So far, it's not anywhere close!  If February does end up much colder than normal, then the period of DJF just might average out to what I expected.  But now I'm having reservations about February being that cold.  I'm still going to stick with it with the most likely time for really cold weather from about the 8th through 20th.  I'll adjust that thinking in a couple of weeks.

In addition to the above, the Arctic Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation have been strongly positive (suggesting the really cold air has been bottled up across the higher latitudes).  Those indices are not forecast (accuracy is often poor) to dip much - although that could change as we get into February.





Finally, back to the previous post about the potentially impactful storm for the 24th/25th (which now appears to be early next week instead).  Computer models, at this point this Thursday afternoon, will be of  NO help as their solutions have been all over the place.  My gut feeling is that there will still be a storm.  The million dollar question is will be across Nebraska?  Eastern Kansas?  Oklahoma and east? Or as far west as the high plains?  I still think the high plains could be a target initially and intensifying going east.  But then the question begs "what type of precip?".  At this point, since the potential storm energey is WAY out across the Pacific, there is just no predictability.  Choose your most trusted weather source for local weather and start paying attention later this weekend for details.  I won't have a chance to add anything to this blog until early next week.