Update - June 26, 2014 - We're still in an active pattern but summer is setting in!

See the previous post by clicking here

Additional convective events have taken place since the last posting.  This morning (Thursday June 26) another MCS (Mesoscale Convective System) was sliding southeast into south central Kansas.  The 14 day precipitation map does not include much of this precipitation.  Over the past two weeks there has been excessive amounts of rainfall and unfortunately some damaging hail and high wind.  The hail and wind is certainly not unusual even for late June.  Some areas have measured in excess of 6 inches during the period. All areas have received rainfall but there are still pockets that have missed out on heavier rain and have received  less than a quarter of an inch.

For the month of June much of the area has received much above normal rainfall and in some cases near record values.  The map below shows areas in pink that have measured between 10 and 15 inches for June! But at the same time, there are a few localized spots near Elkhart, Johnson, Coolidge and near Hugoton that have received  less than 1 1/2 inches of rain.

Locally in the Dodge City area rainfall has varied in amounts too.  At the Dodge City airport we have had 6.81 inches (keeping in mind that in town MUCH heavier rain has fallen - even double) and this is the 8th wettest June, so far.  For the Water Year (that started October 1, 2013), the accumulated precipitation has now gone above normal.

However, there is still quite a deficit going back to the beginning of Water Year 2011 that started October 1, 2010.  Many areas across the high plains are similar if not worse.

Because of the deficits, much of the area is still in a drought.

So, this has certainly been a nice period of improvement but much, much more rainfall is needed to break the long term drought that took years to develop.  During the short term, that is through early July, there should still be opportunities for systems of storms rolling off the high terrain to the west.

Sometimes when it gets green and wet there are some feedback mechanisms into the atmosphere that promote additional opportunities for convective events during the warm season.  West Texas and eastern New Mexico did receive abundant rainfall during the past 30 days and this will have a positive influence on Kansas weather, at least for the next several weeks. However, there does now appear to be changes taking place in the atmosphere that point to a summer pattern developing.  Does this mean it's suddenly going to get hot and dry?  Not likely.

I still am holding hope that with some feedback into the atmosphere and with a residual but diminishing overall favorable weather pattern that there should still be periodic opportunities for convection well into July.  I'm hoping that a Rockies Monsoon (that typically develops during the first part of July and lasts into August) will be developing soon.  With the overall pattern we've had this should help areas of eastern Colorado and far western Kansas.  How far this activity gets is a big unknown.  More on this later.

There should still be periodic cold fronts (weaker) that should bring a few days of thunderstorms across the high plains.  In the earlier post this week I had mentioned a "cold" outbreak for the July 4th period.  It still looks to be on track but mainly impacting the upper midwest/corn belt.  We should still get a taste of that well into western Kansas.  Thus, I would not be surprised to see a couple of days of storms from July 2nd through July 5th with below normal temperatures.

So, for July I would expect near normal rainfall at most locations.  Yes there will be spots that receive much above normal  rainfall due to stronger storms at their location and unfortunately a few spots will receive less than normal rainfall.  Temperatures should end up near normal to slightly above but I don't see days and days of 100's and wind.

One final thought...there continues to be much talk about El Nino.  We are NOT in an El Nino just yet and there continues to be some uncertainty about that evolution (even if it will develop, let along becoming a strong one).  I'll talk more about this later but for now I offer the following graph.  The numbers of SOI (Southern Oscillation Index) needs to be significantly negative for several months.  It just hasn't happened yet.

I'll try and update this blog again around July 11.

Brief update - June 21, 2014

Due to time constraints and travel to conferences I have not had time to update this blog.  This will be brief.

NOTE:   It would also be helpful to read the previous posts on this blog if you have not done so before now.

For official long range forecasts, go to The Climate Prediction Center.


During the past 3 weeks the overall weather pattern has certainly been favorable to produce precipitation, finally!  As expected the pattern has evolved into one that provides opportunities for precipitation.  In addition, the pattern is NOT favorable for very hot days.  Yes, there have been a few 100 degree days but for the most part there has not been extreme heat.  Dodge City has failed to reach 100 this year and it appears that we will go through June without an occurrence.

Some areas of central and southwest Kansas have had in excess of 10 inches during the period!  There are large pasture ponds in parts of Clark, Kiowa, Clark, Ellis and Trego counties (as well as other central and eastern KS counties) that filled after having been dry or nearly dry for several years!

The U.S. Drought monitor shows the area has improved as far as drought is concerned (long term conditions) but there is a lot of improvement needed.


















The outlook through the remainder of June is for a continued opportunity for rainfall, and in some cases excessive rains.  Temperatures will likely remain normal to below.  I doubt there will  be any 100 degree days although a few spots could top the century mark.  Looking into July, I expect there will be additional episodes of precipitation and cooler temperatures.  Overall, July may end up near to above normal on rainfall and temperatures will likely end up around normal.  This outlook will be reassessed next week (week of June 23).  One period I'm watching with interest is around July 4th, or at least that first week of July.  There are some early indications that it may turn much colder with ample precipitation then.  If that pans out, there may not be ANY 100 degree days at Dodge City for July!  I'll take a deeper look next week.


The Weather Prediction Center of the National Weather Service is calling for quite a bit of rain during the next 7 days, which I concur.  It looks like late Sunday into Monday (22nd and 23rd) there may very well be widespread 1 inch rains with isolated 3 or 4 inch amounts possible. This is contingent on the development and evolution of an  MCS (Mesoscale Convective System) but it is looking more and more likely.

Rainfall expected from June 21, 2014 through early June 28, 2014

Late May update (May 30, 2014)

NOTE:   It would also be helpful to read the previous posts on this blog if you have not done so before now.

For official long range forecasts, go to The Climate Prediction Center.

(Click on images for a larger version)

Since the last posting on May 9, 2014, there have finally been small signs of what I've been expecting. Although not everyone received precipitation, or at least a substantial amount, there were definitely areas that received copious amounts of rainfall.

Unfortunately, there are still many locations that have not received much rain.  Therefore, the drought continues and in fact has intensified as we get deeper into the warm season.  But, areas of west Texas and eastern New Mexico did receive substantial rains and that, hopefully, will help it to green up which will have an impact of the high plains of Kansas later this summer.

Picking just one site, in the case Dodge City, shows how the deficit of precipitation keeps growing.  Keep in mind that parts of Ford County and Dodge City received very heavy rainfall on Mothers Day (May 11).

Without that rainfall the growing deficit at Dodge would be so much greater!  The graph above shows the accumulated precipitation for Water Year 2014, or from October 1, 2013 through the current date.

The next graph illustrates just how bad it is getting (and it's a lot worse at other locations).  This graph shows the accumulated precipitation since October 1, 2010 through the current date (or WY 10 through WY14).

So is it going to get better?  If you surf the 'net' there are varying opinions.  Some say the drought will expand and intensify throughout the summer and into the fall.  Personally, I've been expecting a gradual change to a wetter regime and so far that is the trend (although it would be hard pressed to see at a lot of the very dry locations).

However, one of the biggest disappointments of this trend is the lack of widespread heavy rainfall that SHOULD have occurred this past 10 days of May.  An upper low formed over northern California on May 19th and it has taken 10 full days to reach northern Louisiana.  The track and position should have brought a copious amount of rainfall to a very large part of the central and southern Plains.  Indeed there were many locations that did receive a bunch of rain, and some that had excessive rainfall.  But the rest of us? Puzzling.

This pattern of slow moving systems will likely repeat several times until late summer.  At the same time there should be an above normal amount of frontal passages into the U.S. and the thought is that many of these will make it as far as the central plains.  Given that scenario, I'm optimistic  that above normal rainfall will result across much of the high plains as moisture is transported westward into the higher terrain to the west.  The "killer" to this may be the upper level ridge that should set up somewhere across the Texas.  Will it be too strong and cap the atmosphere?  That is a possibility which would limit the chances for periodic convective systems, and therefore bring rainfall totals back to normal or even a little below normal.

One of the long range computer models (CFSv2) has been very persistent and consistent in forecasting at least normal if not way above normal rainfall into July.  This model generates an outlook based on current conditions and is run several times after changing initial conditions slightly.

The graphic below shows the wettest run of the CFSv2 based on data from upper air soundings on May 29. As you can see, it is VERY wet!    The second map shows the average of all the runs based on the same data.

Again, this computer model has been very, very consistent in this type of output.

Finally, you may have heard about an El Nino developing and even developing into a super Nino.  Hold on, there is more to the story.  So far it has been a major struggle for the event to even start.   I don't like the trend.

The green trend on the graph above should be dropping to well below zero.  So far, it's not!  There are very warm waters just north of Australia and this may prevent a coupling of the oceanic warm waters in the western Pacific basin.  What that means that IF an El Nino develops this fall and winter, it may not be that strong.  That could have impacts on the western U.S. and southern states, which in turn would impact weather in Kansas.   We need to root for a decent El Nino as all major recorded droughts in the plains states have been broken by such an event.  Computer models still indicate that one will develop later in the year and into next - the stronger the better I believe.

I'll update again after June 15th.

Latest Update on the Sring & Summer Outlook (May 9, 2014)

Before going further, make sure you review the original post made on April 15, 2014...located at Spring & Summer Outlook.

It's been a very disappointing weather regime so far this spring.  Under ideal and even "normal" spring conditions, these weather systems that have brought "weather" to parts of Texas, Oklahoma, Missouri and points east (and even far eastern KS) would have brought many rounds of spring storms to all of Kansas.  As it stands, it appears the flow aloft has just been too strong and too far north and with bad timing.  Boundary layer moisture has not had a chance to move far enough west to be lifted by these systems.  Early in the Spring the moisture was even too limited across Texas and the deep south due to persistent cold fronts during the winter.

Now that early May has arrived, at least the gulf moisture has been more robust and farther west and north.  What this means is that with time, moisture will be utilized by the weather systems moving in from the west so that precipitation opportunities will be increasing.   Granted it is likely too late for much of the winter wheat, especially in the hardest hit areas of the drought.  All the very long range forecast models (U.S. and abroad) have been persistently indicating above normal precipitation for May.  It is bothersome that  scenario has not been realized yet.  Each passing day that nothing materializes leads to less and less confidence.  But at least the cycle is there...it's just a matter of time!

Not only has the dryness increased across much of the area bringing the demise to much of the wheat crop, but now we'll have to worry about another freeze!  As has been expected since late winter, this next cold outbreak is right on time.  This next week (May 12-17) will see low temperatures well into the 30s and with any clearing and decreasing winds, there is a chance the mercury will fall into the upper 20s across at least far northwest Kansas.

Update on the drought.  The latest is the drought assessment for plains updated on April 29, 2014.

 

...and for Kansas...

Speaking of the optimistic long range models.  The  Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) from NOAA has the following forecast (just one model run) for the period of May into early June.  Needless to say...WET!

If this verified, almost the entire corn belt would be very wet!  And, wet across most of Kansas!  Again, these models have been very persistent with these wet outlooks but it just hasn't started yet.  I'm still staying optimistic that things will turn around.

Finally, as I pointed out in the mid April post, all major droughts have been "busted" by developing El Nino conditions.  An El Nino has been expected to develop, but so far it has been a VERY slow process with some thought that it might not happen!  The following is an updated plot from April of the SOI (Southern Oscillation Index).  We want to see negative values!  It is slowly trending that way, at least (look at the 90 day or green line).

The outlook is for the El Nino to continue to develop, and with high confidence of that happening.  The big question is just how strong it might get and for how long.  I wouldn't be too suprised to see just a weak/moderate Nino and wouldn't persist too long given the state of the atmosphere and climate.  But at least it would increase the opportunity for above normal precipitation later in the summer and into the winter and next spring/summer.

I hope to update this again before the end of May.

Spring and Summer Outlook for Western Kansas

April 15, 2014

*** For official government outlooks please go to The Climate Prediction Center outlook page. ***

Preface:

For the High Plains of Kansas the climate is characterized by highly variable conditions, both in short and long time periods. The proximity to the Rocky Mountains and Gulf of Mexico moisture source are just two of the reasons for such variability.  But it is more complicated than that.  There are numerous intra-seasonal, multi-seasonal, multi-year, multi-decade and even multi-century ocean/atmosphere cycles and influences on our weather.

The image below is a simplified view of the basic water cycle that exits on earth.

Beyond the water cycle, interactions with with land masses, oceans and the sun are what drives our weather. Understanding these interactions can help (or hurt) long range forecasts.  Because of millions and millions of interactions across the globe and the fluctuation of the suns energy, forecasts beyond just a few days can suffer in accuracy.  The following are just a few of the tele-connections cycles and oscillations that impact our weather (and feel free to Google these for an explanation of each):

The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO)
Global Wind Oscillation (GWO)
El Niño/La Niña - Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
Arctic Oscillation (AO)
Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)
Atlantic Multdecadal Oscillation (AMO)
Solar cycles (this could be a HUGE player in the next couple of decades)

To show the variability in precipitation and temperature, one only has to look at yearly statistics for Dodge City where observations have been kept since 1875.

In looking at the linear temperature trend one could assume steady warming since 1875.  But there have been definite cooling periods as shown below:

It is interesting when looking at the temperature trend since 1998.  There is a downward trend. These trends could all be tied to the sun and to perhaps the phase of the Pacific Decdal Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecdal Oscillation.

Recap of recent weather:

Obviously it has been dry across many areas, especially the western fourth of Kansas.  The drought monitor shows much of far western Kansas in an extreme drought with severe drought conditions extending in central and southeast Kansas.

Although many areas had beneficial precipitation during the late summer and fall, conditions have seen a significant change to drier conditions.  For the 2014 water year cycle  (October 1, 2013 through September 30, 2014), precipitation accumulations were near normal but have tailed off during the typical winter months.

So with the dryness of the winter and early spring the deficit of precipitation has been growing.  Similar conditions exist across the remainder of southwest Kansas.

Looking at the longer term the deficit has been growing at an uneasy rate.  The following graph shows the deficit of moisture at Dodge City since October 1, 2010 and ending April 1, 2014.

Elsewhere across Kansas similar conditions exist since April 2012.

In addition to the growing precipitation deficit the average temperature during the winter was below to much below normal, as expected.  This certainly did not help the winter wheat condition.

The Outlook:

So what is in store?  In a nutshell the prospects for beneficial moisture does appear to be improving!  There are many complicating factors that being considered.  The bad news...during the next 5 to 10 years the overall outlook is for drier than normal conditions.  However, and this is important, there is at least hope for several "wet" periods lasting 12 to 18 months that may occur during this longer term dry period.  One reason for the possible overall dryness is the phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the phase of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation.  Those phases take several decades to change.

But the good news?  History has shown that for every "major" drought across the plains, the droughts have been broken by the warm phase of ENSO, i.e., a developing El Niño.  Currently it appears that at least a weak El Niño may be developing.  The water temperatures across the equatorial waters are warming but slowly.

 Many computer models are indicating the warming of the equatorial Pacific waters will be warming,.i.e. showing a developing El Niño.

 For the shorter term (through May) some of the influences will be the AMO, PDO, AO and NAO.

The PDO and AMO are not going to change anytime soon.  More importantly will be the possible warming of ENSO and then the contributions to the Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation.

A phase of the AO is especially important during the winter months.  A negative AO allows brutal Arctic air to spill into the U.S. and this was a case for much of the winter.  During this early spring the AO has gone positive but there has been a trend for a negative phase again.  If the AO does go negative the opportunity for frequent fronts during the spring and into early summer will increase.

The NAO has been nearly neutral for much of the winter.  A negative phase would allow systems to block up (systems would slow down and be farther south).

 The Wrap Up...

The best "educated guess" is for an improving chance for beneficial precipitation.  As the spring progresses the availability of Gulf moisture will be increasing which will enhance the amounts of precipitation that each weather system could produce.  April will likely end up below normal across far western Kansas (where there is currently the driest conditions) but the remainder of the area may be normal to even above normal. Temperatures will average near to slightly below normal for April, but there will still be wild swings.  The chance of minimum temperatures of below 32 is extremely high into late April.  In fact, it would not be surprising to see near freezing temperatures during the first week of May.

At this time it does appear that the month of May could get "wet"!  The chance for above normal rainfall for May is relatively high and optimism is increasing.  Average monthly temperatures though could end up below normal (including the chance for near freezing temperatures the first week of the month).  It does not appear very likely that extremely hot temperatures are in the offing, although there could be one or two days that get really warm, much like what occurred April 12th of this year.

Will try for an update towards the end of April.