Brief update - June 21, 2014

Due to time constraints and travel to conferences I have not had time to update this blog.  This will be brief.

NOTE:   It would also be helpful to read the previous posts on this blog if you have not done so before now.

For official long range forecasts, go to The Climate Prediction Center.


During the past 3 weeks the overall weather pattern has certainly been favorable to produce precipitation, finally!  As expected the pattern has evolved into one that provides opportunities for precipitation.  In addition, the pattern is NOT favorable for very hot days.  Yes, there have been a few 100 degree days but for the most part there has not been extreme heat.  Dodge City has failed to reach 100 this year and it appears that we will go through June without an occurrence.

Some areas of central and southwest Kansas have had in excess of 10 inches during the period!  There are large pasture ponds in parts of Clark, Kiowa, Clark, Ellis and Trego counties (as well as other central and eastern KS counties) that filled after having been dry or nearly dry for several years!

The U.S. Drought monitor shows the area has improved as far as drought is concerned (long term conditions) but there is a lot of improvement needed.


















The outlook through the remainder of June is for a continued opportunity for rainfall, and in some cases excessive rains.  Temperatures will likely remain normal to below.  I doubt there will  be any 100 degree days although a few spots could top the century mark.  Looking into July, I expect there will be additional episodes of precipitation and cooler temperatures.  Overall, July may end up near to above normal on rainfall and temperatures will likely end up around normal.  This outlook will be reassessed next week (week of June 23).  One period I'm watching with interest is around July 4th, or at least that first week of July.  There are some early indications that it may turn much colder with ample precipitation then.  If that pans out, there may not be ANY 100 degree days at Dodge City for July!  I'll take a deeper look next week.


The Weather Prediction Center of the National Weather Service is calling for quite a bit of rain during the next 7 days, which I concur.  It looks like late Sunday into Monday (22nd and 23rd) there may very well be widespread 1 inch rains with isolated 3 or 4 inch amounts possible. This is contingent on the development and evolution of an  MCS (Mesoscale Convective System) but it is looking more and more likely.

Rainfall expected from June 21, 2014 through early June 28, 2014