Update 10/20/2016

This post will have to be abbreviated...

 Yippee, the "official" winter outlook has been released.  Just as I had suspected, the experts at the Climate Prediction Center went with a "La Nina" outlook for the winter.  What does this mean?  Take 10 winters that had a La Nina, average out the weather, and go with that prediction.  For some parts of the county this might work out pretty good, or 8 out of 10 times.  For the high plains, maybe 5 out of 10 years.  Meh.  Do you remember the Godzilla of all El Nino predictions for last winter?  California was to have massive rains and flooding.  The predicted weather DID NOT occur!

Here are the graphics for CPC's outlook for the winter (temperature first, then precipitation)....
 






The average for the three month period (December, January and February) is depicted by these maps.  For instance in the precipitation map above, for south Texas the odds have shifted significantly towards drier than normal. For Nebraska, the odds don't favor one direction or another.  For Kansas, the odds are shifted every so slightly towards drier.  This really looks like nothing more than a La Nina based composite forecast.   Again, for Kansas this type of forecast my verify half the time.

Unfortunately I don't have time to update my outlook this week.  I have other obligations I have to attend to.  But Monday (24th) I should be able to do a more in-depth and thorough discussion.

In the meantime, watch out on social media and web pages.  I'm starting to see a lot of  viral graphics being sent around.  One is a forecast map that has made the rounds three years in a row.  It's fake!  Another was a post just yesterday about a snowstorm that is to occur on the 2nd of November.  That was nothing more than ONE iteration of a forecast computer model output that wasn't even interpreted correctly. 

I'll shoot for late Monday afternoon....check back then.

Brief note - 10/19/2016

Give me another day or two for a more in-depth discussion.  The "official" winter outlook from the Climate Prediction Center will be released on Thursday (19th) and I want to see what they are looking at.  I'm getting an idea as the pattern is forming/establishing.  I'm not liking the early part of this pattern that is forming but I need to do some more evaluating.

Brief update 10/07/16

The minimum temperatures this morning (10/7) got close to freezing or below.  There were some mid 20s at several locations.  But, I'm wondering how much damage was done to sensitive plants as the mercury was below 32 for a relatively short period of time.

Here is a map from the Kansas State mesonet low temperature observations....



As discussed in the post that I did two days ago (read it here), I mentioned possible rainfall for Sunday and Monday and that is still on track.  The question at this point is how widespread and how much will fall.  In general, it doesn't look like much but it could be very beneficial where it does manage to rain.


Beyond the early week system, nothing significant is showing up for at least another week.  But, October can be a very changeable month.

If you're at the 3i show in Dodge City next week (10/13-15), make sure and stop by the National Weather Service booth (I-294). 

Update on 10/5/2016

In the previous post I did on Friday (click here), I discussed a weather maker that was approaching the west coast but because of several negative factors, I wasn't confident in it providing much moisture for the high plains.

That system has come and gone (it brought some severe weather and locally heavy rain to Oklahoma and eastern Kansas on Tuesday).   Before the system even made it to the plains there were isolated pockets of beneficial (and some very heavy rains) late in the weekend and on Monday.  Here is a map showing the rainfall for the past week:
 
Also in this previous post I reiterated my thoughts that October or at least the first half of the fall could be on the dry side, in general.   I also hinted at the next chance of rain being around the 11th or 12th.  As of today (Wednesday), it still appears to be a possibility.

Looking at the satellite image from this afternoon....

 
 
There were several features to point out.  First, Hurricane Mathew.  There was still a lot of uncertainty to eventual path.  The most likely area of the U.S. to be impacted is Florida, but really any where from Miami to Charleston South Carolina should be prepared for a major hurricane.  The atmosphere is going through changes across the northern hemisphere and the outlook beyond about Saturday is challenging (including the hurricane and other systems moving across North America).

The second feature is the dip in the jetstream out west and the system denoted by the red X on the image above.  This will move rapidly into the plains by Thursday and will help initiate another round of thunderstorms (and some severe) on Thursday.  But again, east of the high plains.

The earlier thinking of a chance of moisture by the 11th or 12th still appears possible (system does not show up on the satellite image), but it may actually be closer to the 9th or 10th.  The Weather Prediction Center has an idea on the potential for precipitation through next Wednesday.  That might be slightly optimistic but I can't argue with it too much.   
If we don't see much rain by Wednesday of next week, the prospects for additional rain does NOT seem great, at least through about the 18th or 19th.


One final thought...I also mentioned frost or a light freeze for the middle part of this week.  That is still in the offing as some "cold" air will spill in behind the system that brings the weather on Thursday.  The coldest temperatures will likely be Friday morning.  Again, a killing or growing season ending freeze is not expected, yet.


 

2016/2017 startup - updated 09/30/2016

After a crazy busy summer, I'm getting a little extra time where I can start posting on a more regular basis.

Starting where I kind of left off...on July 26 I posted (although it was also a brief summary) about the remainder of the summer and early thoughts on the fall.  Here is what I concluded with:

Then for September I feel that it may turn off very dry with above normal temperatures.  Good for the maturing corn, milo and cotton.   For those planning on fall planting of winter wheat...take advantage of early soil moisture!  The fall may end up drier than normal (at least first half?).  BUT, the new pattern starts to form in October so confidence is not high beyond  September.

For the most part I believe that was a pretty accurate outlook!  Here is the percent of normal of precipitation for the month of September (through the 29th):
 

For the High Plains, there was one or two events this month that brought copious amounts of rainfall to a small percentage of the region, especially up by Hill City and Norton and out by Tribune, and northwest of Lubbock.  But for the majority of the area it turned pretty dry this September with a stretch of hot and windy conditions.  From the bit of travel I've been experiencing around Kansas this past week it appears that there was quite a bit of drilling of winter wheat (and lots of corn and milo cutting).  Obviously at least some rain is needed in the short term to get the wheat really going strong tapping into the sub-soil moisture.

For the short term, the only significant chance for moisture will come during the first of next week.  But, there is much uncertainty on the outcome.  Looking at the latest satellite image:

The "L" over western Kentucky has been spinning around the midwest for the past week. Excessive rainfall has fallen on many parts of the corn belt.  I saw a video this morning of a combine harvesting corn through a flooded field (looked like about 2 feet deep) in Iowa. Crazy!  https://www.facebook.com/StormTeamWGAL/videos/1751786865085701/

Anyway, that storm brought a major change to the high plains as it moved into the midwest allowing much drier air to filter it.  This essentially ended any chance for rains in the plains.  But, there is a small amount of hope.  Do you see the low pressure system (the L) off the Oregon coast (top left)?  This is a major dip in the jetstream that is slowly moving east.  Normally I would be excited.  But there are other factors downstream that could adversely affect it's eventual movement and placement.   The first is the hurricane south of Jamaica.  The other is the crazy low over the midwest.  These systems are kind of blocking the movement of other systems.   The storm over Oregon may develop a little father south before turning east.  This issue I see is that it could move out into the plains as it also lifts north.  Usually this means that any precipitation will be north and east of the high plains.  I really won't have much of an idea until Monday as it gets closer.  In addition, the associated surface features might move east too fast (bad timing).  

So, what I'm saying is don't count on moisture with this storm.  Rather, pray that it does rain (as there is at least a chance).

Here is the latest outlook from the Weather Prediction Center:
 
BTW, the large amounts of rain across Montana and North Dakota and into Canada is quite anomalous for late September!


Back to the previous July post.  I also said it might be on the dry side going into at least the first half of the fall season. The "new" weather pattern that is in the process of developing won't provide much predictability until at least late October at the earliest.  After early next week, I don't see much hope for precipitation until at least October 11/12.  The 3i show in Dodge City is coming up on the 13th, 14th, and 15th.  You want to bet it rains at least once during the show?  It didn't last year.  But this year? Hmmm.

By mid-October I might start be seeing some "signs" of the new weather pattern change.  Hopefully I can provide some insight by then.

As far as a killing or hard freeze, there is NOTHING indicating that is in the offing anytime soon.  Yes, there could be some scattered frost or very light freezing conditions towards the middle part of next week, but nothing really that cold.  I have a hunch that a season ending freeze for much of the high plains may be more towards the typical climatological date (mid/late October at the earliest) or even a bit later.

I won't give an outlook for the late fall/winter/spring until the pattern gets established and starts cycling.  If I was to GUESS based on some oceanic indices, I would go with perhaps normal precipitation for the winter and normal to slightly above on temperatures.  Really, nothing more than a wild guess.  I'll know more in about a month.

Some have asked about the impending La Nina.  Well, that might not even happen!  Again, more on that as we get a little deeper in the fall. 

BTW, here is the latest U.S. drought monitor:



I'll try and update again next week.

Startup (updated 9/22/16)

For those that "give a care"....

I'm going to attempt to start posting again sometime next week (end of September).

I'll be back...Update 7/26/16

This has been a ridiculous spring and summer for me in terms of time to do extracurricular activities, i.e., this blog. 

BUT, I will get back into a routine later this summer or fall!  Hopefully, some will be interested in what I have to say.

In the meantime, I will post the following:

I've talked to several persons lately giving a quick and FIRST GUESS about the remainder of the summer and into the fall.  I don't have time to go into details, but my early feeling is that there will continue to be periodic stretches of decent rain chances going well into August.  But there will also be a few short duration dry and hot periods.  Overall I think there will still be decent moisture through August (except for maybe the southern high plains).

Then for September I feel that it may turn off very dry with above normal temperatures.  Good for the maturing corn, milo and cotton.   For those planning on fall planting of winter wheat...take advantage of early soil moisture!  The fall may end up drier than normal (at least first half?).  BUT, the new pattern starts to form in October so confidence is not high beyond  September.

I'll shoot for an update by mid-August.  Hopefully.