Update on 10/5/2016

In the previous post I did on Friday (click here), I discussed a weather maker that was approaching the west coast but because of several negative factors, I wasn't confident in it providing much moisture for the high plains.

That system has come and gone (it brought some severe weather and locally heavy rain to Oklahoma and eastern Kansas on Tuesday).   Before the system even made it to the plains there were isolated pockets of beneficial (and some very heavy rains) late in the weekend and on Monday.  Here is a map showing the rainfall for the past week:
 
Also in this previous post I reiterated my thoughts that October or at least the first half of the fall could be on the dry side, in general.   I also hinted at the next chance of rain being around the 11th or 12th.  As of today (Wednesday), it still appears to be a possibility.

Looking at the satellite image from this afternoon....

 
 
There were several features to point out.  First, Hurricane Mathew.  There was still a lot of uncertainty to eventual path.  The most likely area of the U.S. to be impacted is Florida, but really any where from Miami to Charleston South Carolina should be prepared for a major hurricane.  The atmosphere is going through changes across the northern hemisphere and the outlook beyond about Saturday is challenging (including the hurricane and other systems moving across North America).

The second feature is the dip in the jetstream out west and the system denoted by the red X on the image above.  This will move rapidly into the plains by Thursday and will help initiate another round of thunderstorms (and some severe) on Thursday.  But again, east of the high plains.

The earlier thinking of a chance of moisture by the 11th or 12th still appears possible (system does not show up on the satellite image), but it may actually be closer to the 9th or 10th.  The Weather Prediction Center has an idea on the potential for precipitation through next Wednesday.  That might be slightly optimistic but I can't argue with it too much.   
If we don't see much rain by Wednesday of next week, the prospects for additional rain does NOT seem great, at least through about the 18th or 19th.


One final thought...I also mentioned frost or a light freeze for the middle part of this week.  That is still in the offing as some "cold" air will spill in behind the system that brings the weather on Thursday.  The coldest temperatures will likely be Friday morning.  Again, a killing or growing season ending freeze is not expected, yet.