Update 10/31/2016 - I sure hope I'm not being tricked!

I wrote up a lengthy post on Friday (click here to read it) and there were a couple of items I discussed that I want to revisit as some major changes appear to be taking shape.  Just in the past three days a few items have really gotten my attention!  Although I had a pessimistic view on precipitation chances coming up, I did mention that the pessimistic view was in the presence of at least several systems that could benefit the area.  This is what I said:

"Although there "could" be something around the 2nd-5th time frame, I have zero confidence in anything at all.   There are systems, but the flow is going to have to transition soon, or it won't happen."

I think that flow is already showing signs of a transition!

Read on....

First, the snow cover across Asia or Eurasia.  I showed that graphic in Friday's post but major changes have shown up in just these past three days!  Here they are side-by-side (27th on the left, 30th on the right):

click for a large version

I'm now reading that RECORD snow for this early has been laid down across much of Siberia.  In concert with the snow cover, record cold has gripped part of that region.  In that post on Friday I talked about the negative Arctic Oscillation and the cold being displaced on that side of the northern hemisphere.  But over the weekend temperatures started to plummet across northern Canada as surface pressures start to rise there.

Another  item I discussed was the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI).   Here is what I said:

" But, what is VERY interesting to me is that the Southern Oscillation Index (measurement of the state of the atmosphere across the Tropics) has crashed in the past few days.  The numerical index is as low as it has been since early June when we were still in the El Nino regime!"

This is happening in the presence of water temperatures that have cooled over the past 2-3 months across the equatorial Pacific.  The values continued to drop over the weekend.  The 30 day average is now as low as it was back in the spring!  This is SIGNIFICANT! 

The following is a chart of the SOI since December 2013 (current on the right):

click for a large version

What is very interesting is this rapid decrease that began around October 1st.  October 1st!  Yes, at about the same time that a "new" pattern starts forming!  Here is the close up of that period:

The last time there was a crash like this was back in mid April.  Do you remember how stormy it got in May?  Coincidence?  Does this signal a major change in the upper flow?  The only thing I have confidence in, is that it does signal an upcoming change in the flow aloft. 

Here is the latest satellite image of the western Hemisphere:

There were several notable features on the image.  The first is circled in red.  This is a rather moist and active area of the equatorial Pacific.  Maybe this is partly responsible for the crash of the SOI?  Really it shouldn't be this robust if the atmosphere was really in a La Nina state.  The wind flow out of this entire area was already responding to all this activity. 

Second, the jetstream across the northern Asian continent and Siberia was responding to the  massive snow cover and very cold that had developed.  The jet stream was starting to expand across the northern Pacific.  Combining this flow of air with the bursts of wind coming out of the area within the red circle will no doubt result in downstream amplification in several areas. 

Get ready for a change!

One of these amplified areas, initially, is shown on the next satellite image:

The red "L" off the western coast of the U.S. has shown some amplification over the weekend.  There is still a lot of uncertainty of where it will track.  But, combining that system as it moves into the Inter-mountain West with the tropical jet stream coming out of the eastern Pacific (green line across Baja California into AZ and NM), the prospects for precipitation have drastically increased for at least New Mexico and far West Texas later in the week.

Two other systems of note...the red X over west central Canada and the second red X on the far left.  The Canada system is starting the process of a developing cold airmass over northern Canada (the source).   The other X is in a prime position and location to help amplify an upper level ridge across western Canada.  Downstream propagation in this developing ridge and with energy flowing from the tropics and northern Pacific should trigger the first widespread cold into the central U.S., most likely between November 10-15.  I wouldn't be surprised that a vigorous storm could develop out of that developing scenario (placement or location somewhere across the central U.S.) that could even contain white chaos.

So get ready!  First, lets hope this system coming into the west coast will be strong enough to get some precipitation going (and obviously hoping it will be far enough north to bring rain to ALL the high plains).   Second, summer will be coming to an abrupt end by November 10-15 as a widespread season ending freeze will finally arrive (maybe not quite into west Texas yet).

Here is the Weather Prediction Center's forecast for precipitation through the 7th:



Don't take the actual amounts or locations literally, but at least know that there is an increased probability of moisture later this week and weekend. There are still uncertainties in the track of the first system so this could be off, but at least it's a start!