Yippee, the "official" winter outlook has been released. Just as I had suspected, the experts at the Climate Prediction Center went with a "La Nina" outlook for the winter. What does this mean? Take 10 winters that had a La Nina, average out the weather, and go with that prediction. For some parts of the county this might work out pretty good, or 8 out of 10 times. For the high plains, maybe 5 out of 10 years. Meh. Do you remember the Godzilla of all El Nino predictions for last winter? California was to have massive rains and flooding. The predicted weather DID NOT occur!
Here are the graphics for CPC's outlook for the winter (temperature first, then precipitation)....
The average for the three month period (December, January and February) is depicted by these maps. For instance in the precipitation map above, for south Texas the odds have shifted significantly towards drier than normal. For Nebraska, the odds don't favor one direction or another. For Kansas, the odds are shifted every so slightly towards drier. This really looks like nothing more than a La Nina based composite forecast. Again, for Kansas this type of forecast my verify half the time.
Unfortunately I don't have time to update my outlook this week. I have other obligations I have to attend to. But Monday (24th) I should be able to do a more in-depth and thorough discussion.
In the meantime, watch out on social media and web pages. I'm starting to see a lot of viral graphics being sent around. One is a forecast map that has made the rounds three years in a row. It's fake! Another was a post just yesterday about a snowstorm that is to occur on the 2nd of November. That was nothing more than ONE iteration of a forecast computer model output that wasn't even interpreted correctly.
I'll shoot for late Monday afternoon....check back then.
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