A transition time for the atmosphere!

For those that have heard my presentations or have read this blog, you know that an entirely new weather pattern starts to form in the fall - centered on about October 1.  What has transpired this first half of September is more than likely entirely the previous pattern but we may be seeing bits and pieces of a new pattern this second half of the month.  In the previous post I did on the 26th of August (click here) I thought there would an increased probability of at least a  couple of "wet" events.  for the second half of September.  More than likely that first chance was the past 36-48 hours and here is what occurred across the area....

But since it appears that "a tiny bit" of the new pattern is showing up, the likelihood of another opportunity for rainfall for the high plains is somewhat in question.  It's not a zero chance, but there is some strong hints that there may not be much for the next 10 days which takes us into late September.  I'm not totally confident of another chance or two, but it would be surprising if we didn't have another system, at least before September is out. 

In addition, a "real" cold front may make an appearance by the first of next week.  The driving force of that "cold" weather is likely a western Pacific tropical storm/typhoon which often causes amplification in the jetstream.   Now I'm not talking about a freeze, but for a couple of days high temperatures may be in the 60s or 70s and lows a couple of mornings next week may briefly fall into the upper 30s (for a minimum) across the high plains.  That period of cooler weather should not last more than a couple of days.

Then as we get towards the end of the month, maybe, just maybe there could be a couple of opportunities for precipitation.  I'll evaluate that during this next week.

As far as the first freeze of the fall?  My gut feeling is it will occur earlier than normal by perhaps a week or so.  If I was to give a date - the guess would be centered on October 10 give a day or two.  As far as a killing freeze?  Probably not yet.  

I'll finish this short post with the outlook for rainfall from the Weather Prediction Center or the next 7 days (into the 23rd), again not much.

Let's hope for that last week of September.