Friday, March 6, 2020

Update - March 6, 2020

There is still no sign of the "really" cold air as the jetstream configuration just doesn't support an intrusion...at least yet.  The yet meaning some Arctic type air could still make an appearance before we can start talking about Spring.

In the previous post on the 27th (you can read that by clicking here), I discussed the March 3 system that did take a very southern route and bypass the central U.S. completely.  Here is the precipitation that fell during this past 7 days.



Also in that previous post on the 27th I mentioned a potential for another system around the 10th.  As of today that looks like it will occur a day or two early.  The biggest impacts will be central and Eastern Kansas although there could still be showery type precip farther west, but not significant.

The Madden Julian Oscillation continues to be somewhat robust...at least strong enough that there is a really strong response in the flow aloft moving from the tropics and then north into the higher latitudes. The positioning and strength should favor an active pattern across the central plains for a while longer.  Based on some observations, I think there is a reasonable chance (good) of another system one that might be a strong storm that will impact the central U.S. between the 13th and 15th.  There is really not a storm at the moment to track but it is something to watch.  Based on the cold air being bottled up north, I would imagine that if the storm occurs it will be mostly liquid.  But, hey that is a long time off yet.

Beyond that potential storm, I see the possibility of another storm around or shortly before the spring equinox. It's just more of a hunch at the moment.

Here is the precipitation outlook from the Weather Prediction Center through the end of next week.



I'll try another attempt at updating this blog later next week.


















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