The eventual track across the plains late Wednesday and Thursday is very much uncertain, as most systems are 3-4 days in advance. It's best to keep track of the details by visiting forecast.weather.gov as this system will produce extreme weather (from fire weather to a major blizzard). I won't lay out details in this blog post since the track is uncertain - but I'm 100 percent confident that this will be news worthy by the time it's said and done.
Temperatures ahead of the storm for early this week will be warming quite a bit which should help soil temperatures. Via the Kansas State Mesonet, soil temperatures at 4 inches had warmed this past week and will jump a bit more before the aforementioned storm moves across. Here were those temperatures as of 8 AM this Monday morning...
But there will be a drop again, or at least this warming will come to a standstill. Behind this weeks storm, cold air will drop in place. As mentioned in the previous post, temperatures after Wednesday will be below normal going into the third week of the month.
Spring (and Fall) weather is very difficult to forecast as the battle between airmasses ensues. The high plains is heavily influenced by dry intrusions sweeping off the higher terrain. It's easy for me to be swayed by short term (1 to 2 week) patterns. In my mind I keep waffling between a dry pattern potentially developing back to "stay the course". For now, I'm staying the course and will still expect opportunities for precipitation that should keep general wetness going well into May, and perhaps through much of June. Through June 30, the official government outlook is for no drought conditions to be developing anywhere across the central plains and midwest.
I'll try and update by the end of the week - but this is a very busy time for me doing presentations.
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