In most winters storms in this vicinity moving towards the central U.S., they would benefit the local region with precipitation (whether that be liquid, freezing or frozen). This particular storm has already brought copious amounts of rain and snow to California and good for them! But as the storm continues to trek to the east and even southeast, it is also going through a weakening trend. Regardless it will eventually produce a ton of rainfall across Texas and parts of Oklahoma. It does appear that it will pass WAY south of the central U.S. and may even be so far south that the northern extent of precipitation may not even reach Oklahoma City!
So far this fall and early winter, the first part was very wet across the central part of the plains, centered on Kansas. Later weather systems started trending north and impacted Nebraska, the midwest and eastern Kansas as we got deeper into fall. Now with this weekend storm going so far south, there does seem to be a signal - a signal that I'm a little concerned about as far as future precipitation trends for the high plains, even going well into the growing season (including summer). I'm hoping this is just an adjustment period as the overall weather pattern (upper troughs and ridges) has been set for this next 10-11 months.
I'm not going to change my thoughts on near to below normal temperatures for the winter, nor will I waver from a normal to above normal precipitation outlook - at least just yet. The change may be just temporary.
For the next couple of weeks it appears that weather systems may weaken as they approach the central U.S., but then intensify again just east of Kansas. I'm still not seeing a signal for the brutally cold air, even though the Arctic Oscillation and MJO have been in a favorable phase.
Here is the precipitation outlook through the end of next week...
I'll try and update again in about a week.
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