Update - 05/10/18

Well at least some areas got lucky with decent precipitation!  A relatively weak system moving out of Wyoming with somewhat marginal boundary layer moisture was able to produce a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) Wednesday evening.  A swath of 1/2 to 1 inch of rain was observed with even a few spots getting around 1 1/2 inches!  Wow that is welcome news that a weak system could produce that!  Here is a map of the rainfall...



Does this mean that this type of occurrence will continue?  Unfortunately no.  Another similar setup is present today (Thursday) but now the atmosphere will be fighting warming air aloft (the dreaded cap) which will make it more difficult (not impossible) to produce widespread precipitation, at least in the short term.


Looking at a recent satellite image, the jetstream is relatively weak (especially for May standards) across the plains.  This may actually be a good thing.  That marginal boundary layer moisture mentioned above will gradually increase.  As long as it doesn't get swept way south and east again, then the continued chances for additional rainfall should exist, at least on a scattered basis. 

 

For a while it has appeared that at least the last 10-15 days of May should be somewhat active.  I'm not seeing anything to discount that notion at the present.  I've been leaning towards the pessimistic side lately because of the limited boundary layer moisture.  But now maybe things are turning around a bit.

Here is the outlook from the Weather Prediction Center through the 17th...    


The central and eastern Corn Belt....that area continues to get precipitation.  Is that too much?

It looks like next week will be more active with a potential for more widespread activity.  I'll try and update next Monday.