Going back to my posts during the fall, I was expecting fewer than normal weather systems that could bring beneficial moisture. There have been a few systems, but unfortunately most have not been too functional for most of the high plains. The small storm on the11th of January brought some moisture to some areas and then the past storm this past weekend (21-22) benefited at least northwest Kansas and Nebraska. There will still be more opportunities the remainder of the winter but those opportunities will be few and far between. If those systems are also "dysfunctional", I'm afraid we're going to start dealing with dust storms later into spring (let alone the wildfire threats).
There is a glimmer of hope though....more on that later in this write-up.
This afternoon there was a small system moving through west Texas. Although it was not bringing "much" in the way of moisture, it was producing lightning. This is actually a bad thing since there is fuel (grass) to burn in that area with what would be considered "dry thunderstorms". But it's also a good sign as this system is change in the pattern that will return in mid-March (and hopefully more functional). On satellite you this system across west Texas is indicated by the red X.
Elsewhere on this map, the jetstream pattern is not too indicative of winter, for now. There is a strong possibility that the cold that occurred the last 10 days of December and the cold that occurred a week ago, will return once again. The first shot may be as early as the 1st with periodic shots of bitter cold well into February. Overall, February may end up below normal for temperatures. With each shot of cold there should be at least a few opportunities for moisture!
Looking at the latest US Drought monitor, the drought is expanding and has become extreme across parts of the southern high plains.
Again, there will at least be a few opportunities for decent storms going through the remainder of the winter. BUT there is also a chance that with each opportunity the storms will behave much like they have since the fall and that is be dysfunctional and not too wet for the high plains. The outlook based on persistence (from the Climate Prediction Center)
Again, there will be at least a few systems. We have to hope and pray that they actually produce.
During the past 110 days there has only been 0.10" of moisture observed at the airport in Dodge City. Believe it or not it's not the driest 110 day stretch! In 1880 there was a 110 day stretch ending April 27 that only 0.04" fell. Following it was a very wet May, July and August. In 1956 there was only 0.10" that fell in a 110 day stretch ending January 20. Unfortunately, 1956 was also the driest year on record at Dodge City. In 1876 only 0.10" fell in the 110 day period ending February 28. That May was wet, but the summer was below normal.
Now to the glimmer of hope. Unfortunately it is a small glimmer. Have you noticed how many fronts have moved through? That is directly tied to the pattern. As we get closer to the growing season, the availability of gulf moisture will increase. It might end up that east of the 100th meridian benefits and still remains dismal west of that line. But there will always be a chance that things could form farther west. So, I'm not writing off the growing season just yet. Let's see how things shake out going into early Spring. I'm betting on a blizzard in March but probably also severe thunderstorms. It might be a wild month. In April, the pattern that has brought the well below normal temperatures this winter will likely return. Thus, I wouldn't be surprised to see a late freeze.
I'll try and update later next week.
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