In the post I did last Friday (click here), there was a discussion about the possible severe weather for Saturday the 9th. I mentioned that if there was a lot of convection the previous night, then the chance for severe weather would be diminished. Indeed that was the case, again! The previous Saturday (2nd) saw the same thing happen. There were tornadoes across northwest Texas and western Oklahoma (with isolated ones in eastern Kansas).
With the rains that fell with the weekend storm, the accumulated precipitation for the month of May through the 17th is very impressive! In fact, amounts are as high as 600 percent of normal across parts of the plains (from the Dakotas to West Texas)! Amazingly there are still a few locations that have generally missed out. (as always click for a larger version)
This week there will be several more upper level storms impacting the high plains. The first will be late tonight into Tuesday night and it will bring widespread rain, especially to the western high plains. There will be a minimal chance for severe weather closer to the warm sector across the southern Texas panhandle and west Texas. Rainfall amounts with this system will be generous!
The latest satellite image shows the system across the west.
Also, the low and dip in the jet stream (the green arrow) over Minnesota has already brought heavy snow and freezing temperatures. The bad news, even colder air is expected for tonight. Freeze warnings are posted for the Dakotas and even a frost warning for parts of Nebraska. I just saw where Minnesota has 95% of the corn planted with North Dakota not too far behind. Has any of it germinated? If so, I guess there will be replanting.
Another strong system will be approaching the plains during the weekend and just like these past two Saturdays, there will once again be the threat of severe weather. But, just like the past two, the chance for severe will be mitigated if overnight storms Friday night stabilizes the atmosphere. Regardless, addition rains (and some excessive) will occur. In fact, combining all the expected rainfall from tonight into early next Monday (the 25th), the potential for severe flooding is increasing! Actually, eventually some of the accumulated rainfall could produce record flooding at some locations so we will need to start thinking about that. Look at the Weather Prediction Centers outlook for potential rainfall through next Monday.
One of the reasons for the anomalously cold and anomalously wet weather is the contribution from a Rossby (or planetary) wave train of downstream propagation. The source has been several western Pacific Typhoon's. A very similar pattern was in place back in December. In fact I discussed the very same situation in the blog I did on December 1. Go back to that post by clicking here.
The current wave train...
I'll try and post later this week and I will discuss an issue that may appear before long. That issue? Too much rain! Too much rain? There is a possibility that a feedback will start to occur and overall wetness and cooler temperatures will persist well into June. Will there be weather conditions that will allow the winter wheat to mature? If so, what about getting the grain out of the field if mud persists? What about getting all of the corn, sorghum and cotton planted if it stays wet? These may be legit issues. Stay tuned...
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