Monday, February 2, 2015

Update - February 2, 2015

In the previous post I did on January 20, click here, I discussed a weather system that was going to impact much of the southern Colorado and into Oklahoma and Texas bringing a lot of snow.  Indeed that did occur, only shifted slight south and east. Click for a large version.



























The snow also had a decent amount of moisture in it and will help with short term drought conditions.  But, for the long term very severe drought conditions continue.  The following is the latest drought monitor map:


More recently,  another wet system moved out of the southwest U.S. and combined with an upper level disturbance that had moved out of Canada (and eventually produced near historic snows around Chicago and now - as of Tuesday - heavy snow in the northeast U.S.).  The result of the combination of the two storms produced widespread rain (and some snow) across much of the high plains and especially Kansas.  Click for the largest version


In recent blogs I was discussing the warming that was expected into the last part of January.  The warming the second part of the month pushed the monthly average at Dodge City to above "normal".


In addition, I also discussed the return of brutal Arctic air during the 2nd week of February.  Although there has been a couple of intrusions, those have lasted only a day or two.  What I'm referring to will be an extended period of Arctic air.  So far the computer models have not caught on but I'm still confident that it will happen.

Looking at the latest satellite image, the upper flow across the Pacific is rather bizzare and chaotic. 


Most notable for me is the increasing moisture laden flow that is headed towards the west coast.  With time this should shift south and bring heavy rains (and mountain snows) to at least the northern half of California.  For the high plains, the bizarre flow across the central and northern Pacific should settle down and eventually amplification will take place.  As a result, changes in the flow will lead to a more serious Arctic plunge.  I'm going to hold on to this happening in about 10 to 14 days.  

As far as moisture for the high plains, it looks slim for significant amounts for at least a week.

I'll update later this week.



No comments:

Post a Comment