Will this be the winter of the southwest Low?

For most of October the atmosphere was in the transition mode from the 2023/24 weather pattern to the regime that will persist through much of 2025.   There is a lot of uncertainty to what influence the equatorial Pacific will have on this new pattern.  I'm sure you have heard that La Nina will bring this or that.   Absolutely, there are contributions to the North America Hemispheric pattern from the tropics, including the region considered for ENSO (La Nina or El Nino).  But that is NOT the only player in the game!  I cringe when I see outlooks based on those ENSO events without mentioning what is really going on.

This past week the atmosphere finally responded to what I think might be the strongest contribution to the pattern.   It is initially appearing that a favored area for amplification resulting in southwest U.S. lows may be across the Great Basin or even southwest U.S. with a preferred storm track across the central plains.  Here is the 5-day precipitation accumulation through early November 5 resulting from several storm systems...

Will this type of pattern continue?  Will it occur often this winter and into next spring?  Or was this a "fluke"? 

In my reports to customers of Hutton Weather Futures, I reveal what the pattern might look at and highlighting the good and bad of this new pattern. Learn more about the weekly weather outlooks and the long-range forecasts that customers of Hutton Weather Futures receive to help in planning purposes. Go to http://huttonweatherfutures.com or email for details at: jeff@huttonweatherfutures.com

Getting near the transition into the "new" weather pattern

This summer has been a blessing for just part of the high plains, while other surrounding locations did not benefit much from the favorable rainfall pattern.  In fact, since May 20 many areas are hurting severely for some beneficial rains.  Here is a look at rainfall and percent of normal rainfall...

In my weekly reports to subscribers of Hutton Weather Futures, I had been addressing the concerns going into the growing season about the dryness that was likely to develop during the summer.  

However, what was somewhat unexpected is the couple of "wet" storm systems that brought very good rains (and to an extent excessive rain) to parts of the high plains.  It seems that those that were above average were the "target" for many storms while the dry areas just couldn't catch a break.

The concern for much of the area going into fall planting later in September is the dryness that could expand.  As of mid-August the trend was not looking good for September going into October.  But, we are nearing the time of a pattern change.  That is, as the northern hemisphere upper flow begins to strengthen due to the change in seasons, a new pattern will emerge (typically early October).  There are already many "forecasts" for the fall and winter on the web and these tend to be based strictly on the existence of La Nina (that has yet to exist).  I've shown many times that for the central U.S. that fall, and especially winter, have a wide range of outcomes in terms of temperatures and rainfall.  Once this new pattern develops, customers of Hutton Weather Futures will have the first glimpse of what to expect this winter, and next spring and summer. Detailed forecast charts showing increased or decreased odds of precipitation and temperature trends will be made available. 

Finally, in last week’s report I mentioned data across the higher latitudes of north America that “could” have a profound impact on the weather later this fall and winter.  Here is what I’m looking at…

 

Learn more about the weekly weather outlooks and long-range forecasts that customers of Hutton Weather Futures receive to help in planning purposes.  http://huttonweatherfutures.com or you can or email for details at: jeff@huttonweatherfutures.com

Beneficial Rains becoming likely!

It's been quite a while since widespread rains have benefited much of the high plains.  This spring the weather systems have either been too fast (bad timing), air aloft has been too warm, or simply there hasn't been enough boundary layer moisture.  Since it's getting later into the spring, boundary layer moisture will become more abundant.  Plus, at least for this next few weeks, systems will be slower to move across the plains and the associated Elevated Mixed Layer (EML or warm air aloft) will not be quite as pronounced.  The result will be increasing amounts of rainfall and should cover a larger area geographically.  Here is a look at how much the Weather Prediction Center is forecasting through next Friday the 17th.

The very long term outlooks provided by Hutton Weather Futures (HWF) have been consistently accurate.  This period coming up for mid-May was expected to have much better odds of having beneficial rain (outlook was made in December) and it appears that is in the offing. Clients of HWF have the benefit of being able to plan ahead for various operations such as applying herbicides earlier/later, planting earlier/later, seed population, etc., etc..  There has been great success!

For more detail, consider joining the growing number of crop and livestock producers and businesses that have subscribed to Hutton Weather Futures to receive weekly detailed reports!

To subscribe for these weekly reports or to learn more, go to https://huttonweatherfutures.com/ or you can email for details at: jeff@huttonweatherfutures.com. 

Rapid changes taking place across the Equatorial Pacific

The well advertised transition from El Nino into a probable La Nina has taking place rapidly early this spring.   For some time, buoys across the Pacific have show much below normal water temperatures below the surface of the ocean, stretching from South America all the way to the Maritime Continents.  Upwelling has been ongoing and "suddenly" water temperatures below normal have been observed at the surface near South America.  

This rapid transition does not guarantee that we'll be seeing a La Nina later this year and going into 2025, but forecast model agreement certainly points in that direction.

How will this development impact the weather pattern across the High Plains?  The pattern has been setup for some time - that is, it's active but yet weather system behavior has been somewhat erratic for the plains.   The outlook through the summer has been generated, including precipitation chances and temperature trends.  I have identified 4 specific periods this spring and summer where an extended period of excessive heat is expected.  But with that, there are several periods of opportunity for rainfall later this spring that may mitigate some of the heat, at least initially in the growing season.  For more detail, consider joining the growing number of  crop and livestock producers and businesses that have subscribed to Hutton Weather Futures to receive weekly detailed outlook reports. 

To subscribe for weekly reports or to learn more, go to https://huttonweatherfutures.com/ or you can email for details at: jeff@huttonweatherfutures.com. 

Winter makes an appearance after all!

December was unusually "mild" comparatively speaking despite there being signs of cold across the northern hemisphere.  Often, in winter, Arctic cold will dislodge to towards the equator but is confined to the "other side" of the hemisphere, across Europe and Siberia.  Such was the case early this winter.  But, if you recall there was a pretty decent outbreak of cold into the central U.S. back in October.  Specifically the last 4 or 5 days in October and into November when daily average temperatures were 15 to 25 below normal.  It was only a matter of time before the atmosphere aligned to bring the true Arctic air into the central U.S..

Low temperatures across Kansas during the outbreak reached at least -22 F (air temperature, not wind chill).  

Low temperatures - January 16, 2024  per the Kansas State Mesonet observational network

At least 5 to 10 degree air made it into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles and into northern Oklahoma.  In Nebraska where a deep snowpack built up, readings were far colder!

The atmosphere is now transitioning back into a "warmer" one although snowpack across northern Kansas into Nebraska will hold the warming at bay.  The storms in December and so far in January behaved about as expected based on the outlook provided by Hutton Weather Futures, LLC.  Going forward there will likely be two impactful storms in February with minor occurrences on the table also for the central part of the country. March weather could get wild!

Subscribers to Hutton Weather Futures get weekly detailed outlook reports that highlight impactful periods going all the way through the growing season. Information is made available to help you make the best decision you can in planning for the upcoming growing and livestock season.  To subscribe for weekly reports or to learn more, go to https://huttonweatherfutures.com/

There are a lot of conflicting signals!

The weather pattern has been flipping between a La Nina response like upper flow and then showing signs recently of a "typical" El Nino weather pattern with rain and snow into California and wetness across southern Texas.  Here is the precipitation accumulation for the past month ending the morning of November 18 (and notice the tremendous precipitation accumulation across the northwest U.S., atypical of an El Nino pattern...

If you look at indices of ENSO, then one could argue that a true El Nino (at least a strong one as we have been led to believe) is not in place, at least yet.  Sure the equatorial waters of the Pacific support an ongoing El Nino by looking at the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) three month average where the warmest waters have been in the Nino 1+2 region.  But the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) do not support a true El Nino.  One issue has been the warmer than average waters across the mid and high latitudes of the Pacific.  The atmosphere has responded at times with storms slamming into the Pacific Northwest and across the northern Rockies and northern Plains.  Recently California has joined in the action (more of an equatorial Pacific contribution).  Where does that leave us in the plains for the rest of the fall and through the winter?  Will the plains benefit from a transition to a more typical El Nino pattern, or will it be back to the drought for those that got the good rains this summer?  

For subscribers to Hutton Weather Futures weekly weather outlook reports, those questions will be answered.  Although there have been discouraging signs with this weather pattern, I'm seeing some promise buried in the data!  But a lot will have to come together before I know for certain that improvement will be made in terms of soil moisture across a large chunk of the region.  

To subscribe for weekly reports, go to https://huttonweatherfutures.com for more information.

Changing of the guard - the pattern is changing

For much of 2023 growing season, rainfall was extreme across parts of the high plains with late spring and summer rains. In terms of percent of normal, some locations saw 2 to 3 times what is "normal".   At the same time the eastern part of the plains had limited (seasonal averages) rainfall with increasing drought conditions.   Now that the jetstream across the northern hemisphere is increasing in strength, the weather pattern is in the process of "reforming" into what is hopefully a favorable one for crop producers.  A clear picture won't be known for several months but clues will start to emerge soon.  

Even though rainfall this past few weeks has been minimal for much of the high plains, late August and early September storms brought some decent moisture (except for some up in northwest Kansas).  A map of rainfall this past 30 days ending 9/24 illustrates the beneficial amounts for many locations....

The recent (9/21-23) storms across mainly Nebraska, far eastern Kansas and eastern Oklahoma (and points east) is part of the earlier weather pattern (shifted climatologically east) and perhaps a glimpse into what is starting to develop.  I want to start seeing weather systems deepen into the central and southern Rockies to be encouraged.  Some of the long-range computer forecast models have been hinting at decent moisture for October. I'm not "sold" just yet.  

For the subscribers to my weekly weather outlook reports at Hutton Weather Futures, I will be carefully analyzing the new developing weather pattern and will be looking for "clues" of what may impact the Great Plains later this fall, winter and going through the next growing season. Take advantage of the September special pricing for these outlook reports.  You will get these weekly reports for October and November (2 months for the normal price of 1 month).  You can subscribe using this link  https://pay.huttonweatherfutures.com/September_special  or go to https://huttonweatherfutures.com.