For most of October the atmosphere was in the transition mode from the 2023/24 weather pattern to the regime that will persist through much of 2025. There is a lot of uncertainty to what influence the equatorial Pacific will have on this new pattern. I'm sure you have heard that La Nina will bring this or that. Absolutely, there are contributions to the North America Hemispheric pattern from the tropics, including the region considered for ENSO (La Nina or El Nino). But that is NOT the only player in the game! I cringe when I see outlooks based on those ENSO events without mentioning what is really going on.
This past week the atmosphere finally responded to what I think might be the strongest contribution to the pattern. It is initially appearing that a favored area for amplification resulting in southwest U.S. lows may be across the Great Basin or even southwest U.S. with a preferred storm track across the central plains. Here is the 5-day precipitation accumulation through early November 5 resulting from several storm systems...
Will this type of pattern continue? Will it occur often this winter and into next spring? Or was this a "fluke"?
In my reports to customers of Hutton Weather Futures, I reveal what the pattern might look at and highlighting the good and bad of this new pattern. Learn more about the weekly weather outlooks and the long-range forecasts that customers of Hutton Weather Futures receive to help in planning purposes. Go to http://huttonweatherfutures.com or email for details at: jeff@huttonweatherfutures.com
