Update - 04/02/19

If you missed the previous post, you can read it by clicking here.  As expected this past week to 10 days the weather had settled down a bit.  There was still some rain and snow but amounts were generally "light" across the high plains.  Although temperatures have been warming lately due to the higher sun angle, overall there was only one day of pretty mild conditions.  Soil temperatures, although warming, continue well below normal for early April across much of the region.

Drying has been slow across much of the region.  Here is the accumulated precipitation since the 19th of March ending this morning (4/2)....



Going back to the fall, much of the region of western Kansas has seen precipitation amounts 2 1/2 to 3 times what is normal!  It's been a LONG time since soils have been so saturated for this time year.  It's also been very wet across other parts of the country.  The latest drought monitor map (showing long term conditions) indicates continued improvement across many areas.



The dryness across parts of west Texas and the panhandle has improved.  If you go back several posts ago, this was one region I was watching closely.  Typically if it gets really dry across west Texas, the feedback from the dry soils and warmer temperatures can contribute to dryness into Kansas during the spring. Let's see if this trend continues.

Looking ahead....

This mornings satellite image shows a pretty strong weather system just of the west coast....



Although this system will be approaching the central U.S. late Wednesday, it will also be undergoing a weakening trend.  Also, moisture near the surface will be lacking somewhat.  So, widespread heavy precipitation is not expected.  There should still showers and thunderstorms so that some locations will get another good soaking but those areas will be limited.  In general, most areas will get rainfall of less than 1/3 of an inch - and some may not get much at all.

For the next 7 days, there will be a few more opportunities for precipitation that I'll discuss in the next posting.  Also, temperatures should be closer to normal, on average, through about the 9th-10th.  But, then look out!  More cold around then through the end of the 3rd week can be expected, or at least temperatures will average out below normal for that period.    I'll try and post again towards the end of the week if I get a chance.

Update - 03/24/19

For those that are new to this blog...these posts are my own ideas and are done on my own time.  It is not part of the agency I work for (National Weather Service).  However, since I do a lot of presentations for livestock and crop producers, I felt it necessary to periodically update folks of what is going on weather-wise.  But, since this is done on my own time outside of work, I find it difficult sometimes to post more than once every week to 10 days.  It is what it is.

The active weather pattern continues across the high plains, obviously!  Will it ever slow down enough to get field work done?  In some areas that is happening, but only slowly.  The latest weather system to impact the central U.S. was weakening and had already moved into the midwest as of early this morning.  The latest upper level map from Saturday evening shows the system as the red "L"...



The system did produce a fair amount of rain!  The map below is amounts as of yesterday (Saturday morning) but additional precipitation fell since then (that map was not available as of this posting).



Since October 1, the percent of normal is staggering!



There may be a brief lull in storms for the next week to 10 days, although there will be some scattered precipitation. 



It won't be getting too warm though so drying will be slow.  However, with the sun angle increasing substantially over that period, normal temperatures will be getting higher!  There still won't be those really warm days to get that soil temperature up and those soil temperatures will remain below normal for this time of year (but improving).

Another cold shot should arrive by this coming weekend that may knock down temps again.  I'll see if I can get another update in by the end of this busy week I have coming up.

Update - 03-13-19

Just a quick update from the post on the 11th...

The dry intrusion from this extremely strong storm forced the precipitation rapidly east leaving much of the western part of Kansas with WAY less rain that was anticipated (or potential).  I'll update later this week with those amounts.  Thus, the inflow into HorseThief Reservoir, Clark and Cedar Bluff will be MUCH less, at least for now.

Here was the satellite image from this morning showing this extremely strong dry intrusion (the brown arrow) and the area of precipitation (highlighted green area)....



One big part of this storm will be the epic blizzard from northeast Colorado into northern Nebraska plus the tremendous wind gusts to the south of this storm.  By the time it's over, I bet we see some 80 MPH wind gusts across parts of the panhandle and southwest Kansas.  My guess is there will be a least a dozen pivot sprinklers overturned with other damage to weak structures.

I'll update again Friday.

Update 03/11/19

In the previous post I did on 3/5, (read it by clicking here), I finished the blog mentioning "quite a storm" that would have many impactful elements around the 12th/13th.  That storm is currently on track and it looks like a doozy for the high plains (and central part of the country).  It's best to stay current on this storm by checking out weather.gov.

Here is this mornings satellite image....



The upper part of the storm is very far south and is tapping into to loads of Pacific moisture!  As this system turns and then heads towards the central U.S., it will cause a surface low to rapidly deepen by Wednesday.  In advance of this happening, there were will be several rounds of rain (and even thunder) moving out into the central U.S..  For many days computer forecast models have been  indicating very excessive rain for the high plains which would be detrimental as soils are saturated and there is still a lot of frost in the ground.  Runoff from excessive rainfall would cause flooding.

At this point amounts will probably average around 3/4 of an inch from this storm, but there still will be locations 1 1/2 to 2 inches from embedded thunderstorms.  In those locations there will be local flooding.  I came back from Topeka yesterday (Sunday) and I've never seen so much standing water and rivers/creeks this fall for this time of year.  Incredible! 

With frost still pretty deep into the ground and with the overly saturated profile, I've also calculated several runoff scenarios for a few of the lakes.  I think there is a reasonable chance that HorseThief Reservoir will see a 3 to 5 foot rise after this storm, which will inundate several of the Yurts and camping spots.  Also, Clark County Lake will probably also see a 3 to 5 foot rise, despite the outlet opened up to lower the lake to repair the spillway.  And finally, Cedar Bluff.  The springs are open, the river has been flowing (when it's not been iced over), and there has been a steady rise in the reservoir since October.  With the runoff from the melted snow over this past weekend; with the runoff from this upcoming storm; and with the general weather pattern, I'm banking on a 100 percent chance that it will go to 2130 (or just 14 feet low) by July 1. I'll put the odds at 60% of reaching conservation "full" (2144 ft) by July 1.  Honestly, if it ends up less than full, I'll be disappointed and a little shocked.

Back to the up-coming storm.  The system will generate high wind!  Speeds of over 60 MPH by Wednesday will be likely.  Farther north and west (across northeast Colorado into north central Nebraska), there will be an epic blizzard!  Again, check details with weather.gov.   It's not out of the question that "wrap-around" snow will reach as far east as Garden City through Wakeeney... at least it'll be close.

In the previous post I discussed additional opportunities for more precipitation and colder than average temperatures going deep in to March.  This continues to look like a pretty likely scenario.  This no doubt will continue woes for agriculture.  From the Kansas State Mesonet (here is the link to this valuable network of observations: http://mesonet.k-state.edu/), soil temperatures are at record lows for this time of year.  At the Colby station....



This morning here were the 2 inch soil temperatures....



What is amazing was the percent saturation of soil at 50 cm deep....



Here is the 7 day outlook for potential precipitation, although the majority of this is for this current storm...



I'll try and update later in the week.

Update - 03/05/19

Well, if you read the previous blog on the 23rd (you can read it by clicking here), then you're not surprised by what has happened this past 10 days.  It's unfortunate for the livestock producer as this weather has been taking a toll.  I'm hearing a lot of mortality, especially for newborns.

In producer meetings I spoke at during the past month, I had mentioned how brutal February into March was going to be.  But, I also was expecting a pretty good warm-up by mid March that would probably last into mid-April before yet another surge of cold would return.  Much of that notion was derived from the cycle of the general pattern that developed during the fall.  Also, confidence was increased based on the phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO).  Many of the long range tropical models hinted at the MJO going into a warmer phase for U.S. starting mid-month.

But now confidence is growing that the MJO may not make it much past the eastern part of the Indian Ocean Basin.




If that indeed happens, look for the cold to continue, on average for the remainder of March!  That's not to say that there won't be several days of above normal temperatures (in advance of storm systems), but in general the high plains should end with more cold days that warm.

Here is what typically occurs during these phases of the MJO (2 and 3) for March.



As far as storm systems, there appears to be quite a few more opportunities, not all of which will hit the high plains of Kansas.  But, there should be more precipitation, and some of that will be liquid, some of it frozen.  The odds are continuing high for at least one more blizzard across parts of the high plains. 

Here is the outlook for precipitation through early next week.  Speaking of which, around the 12th or 13th, there will likely be quite a storm.  Details of course this far out cannot be nailed down.  But I would imagine that particular storm will have everything (i.e., snow, rain, lots of wind, thunder, and possible hail for mainly eastern KS)...



I'll try and get an update out early next week.

Update 02/23/19

In the previous post (you can read it by clicking here), I discussed the active period of cold and occasional storms that would last into at least the first week of March.  The current (as of Saturday morning the 23rd) storm will end up being very impactful.  I had done several climate/weather presentations this past week and mentioned this one as the storm to watch as blizzard conditions would occur.  BTW, this is the same storm that dumped snow on parts of LA, Las Vegas and 3 feet on Flagstaff.  For details on the current situation, follow weather.gov for the latest.

The amazing moisture profile across Kansas will continue to build with this storm.  Yes, I understand that it will actually be too much at some locations.  It will also continue the struggles with the cattle feeders with the muddy (and snowy) pens.  At this point I don't see much relief in sight.  Farther south across the TX panhandle and west Texas, it's a different  story.

Here is the latest US Drought monitor map....



I've discussed the dry area expanding across west Texas during this past few months.  As I've discussed in presentations I've been doing, it could be a concern going into Spring - but there should also be opportunities for this area to improve moisture wise.  Here is the outlook from the Climate Prediction Center valid through the end of May...




Often in west Texas, very dry conditions tends to promote spring dry lines to advance farther east during the spring - which in turns decreases precipitation opportunities west of the 100th meridian.  But, again, I see some opportunities for that area to pick up moisture as spring approaches.  More on that in later posts.

Looking at this mornings satellite image....



The current storm is the red L (the upper storm) that was across the northern Texas Panhandle.  That storm will quickly move into the mid-west.  That track BTW, will continue dumping moisture on much of the corn belt.  There is currently an upper level ridge that extends well north which is still set to bring more cold air into the central U.S..  As I've mentioned in the previous posts, the active weather with cold continuing into March will continue.  One reason - the MJO!

Here is the latest position of the current MJO and it's forecast.



As I've discussed in the blog and in the presentations I've been doing, this MJO will be propagating through an area of the tropics that typically enhances below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation for the high plains.  That is ONLY if the MJO is forcing the pattern, which at this point I think it has been a big factor this winter.  Here is a composite of what typically occurs across the states as MJO's move towards the Indian Ocean during February....


So, back to the MJO current location and forecast.  If it continues to hold and move into what is called phase space 1 and 2 and is "calling the shots", I would continue my thoughts of below normal temperatures going into the first week of March.  That doesn't mean that a day or two moderates to above normal temperatures.  Just that overall it will be colder than normal.  Also, there will continue to be opportunities for moisture - meaning the odds would favor at least normal to above normal precipitation.

Overall March should be very active across the high plains.  In fact, I think the odds of an Arctic intrusion of very cold is fairly likely by the 1st.  During the month I would expect another blizzard, severe weather, a day or two of warm and windy, etc.  In other words, a typical March.  

I'll try and update again next week.

Quick update - 2/13/19

In the previous post I did on the 1st, (you can read it by clicking here), I mentioned several things I want to discuss.

1) The MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation).

The remnants of the decaying MJO is providing a HUGE swath of Pacific moisture streaming northeast from deep in the tropics.  That can been seen in the satellite image from this morning (white stretching from the bottom center of the image to the southwest U.S.) and this will be a player for a while. 



2) I had a hunch of a February 13th storm (day or two either side) that I had expected for a LONG time.

It looks like that system may be what comes through the central U.S. late Thursday and Friday.  It won't be a huge storm but it will drop pretty cold air and that will set the stage for the next series of storms. There will also be a swath of snow somewhere across Kansas but since it's not quite on the coast, details are uncertain (most likely the norther half). Just check the latest weather.gov forecasts for details.

3) Expecting an active period going into March.

This certainly appears to be panning out.  The jetstream across the Pacific and combined with the southern branch of the westerlies (that band of moisture pointed towards the southwest U.S.) will play a major role in what is to come.  Also, brutally cold air across Siberia and into Canada will make a run towards the U.S.. But, even though the center of the airmass won't make it into the states, the expanse of the cold air will allow for much below normal temperatures for the high plains for the balance of February (after Thursday) that will periodically last into the first week of March.

Several strong upper level systems will be moving across the central U.S., but details of where, when and magnitude of the impacts are not forecastable this far out.  But, I do expect much of the high plains to be covered in snow once we get past Thursday (14th).

Here is the latest precipitation map from the Weather Prediction Center through the 20th.  I do expect this to change going forward.



I'll attempt another update this weekend.  Just be prepared for a cold stretch with occasional snow, that may eventually add up to quite a bit.