Update 02/23/19

In the previous post (you can read it by clicking here), I discussed the active period of cold and occasional storms that would last into at least the first week of March.  The current (as of Saturday morning the 23rd) storm will end up being very impactful.  I had done several climate/weather presentations this past week and mentioned this one as the storm to watch as blizzard conditions would occur.  BTW, this is the same storm that dumped snow on parts of LA, Las Vegas and 3 feet on Flagstaff.  For details on the current situation, follow weather.gov for the latest.

The amazing moisture profile across Kansas will continue to build with this storm.  Yes, I understand that it will actually be too much at some locations.  It will also continue the struggles with the cattle feeders with the muddy (and snowy) pens.  At this point I don't see much relief in sight.  Farther south across the TX panhandle and west Texas, it's a different  story.

Here is the latest US Drought monitor map....



I've discussed the dry area expanding across west Texas during this past few months.  As I've discussed in presentations I've been doing, it could be a concern going into Spring - but there should also be opportunities for this area to improve moisture wise.  Here is the outlook from the Climate Prediction Center valid through the end of May...




Often in west Texas, very dry conditions tends to promote spring dry lines to advance farther east during the spring - which in turns decreases precipitation opportunities west of the 100th meridian.  But, again, I see some opportunities for that area to pick up moisture as spring approaches.  More on that in later posts.

Looking at this mornings satellite image....



The current storm is the red L (the upper storm) that was across the northern Texas Panhandle.  That storm will quickly move into the mid-west.  That track BTW, will continue dumping moisture on much of the corn belt.  There is currently an upper level ridge that extends well north which is still set to bring more cold air into the central U.S..  As I've mentioned in the previous posts, the active weather with cold continuing into March will continue.  One reason - the MJO!

Here is the latest position of the current MJO and it's forecast.



As I've discussed in the blog and in the presentations I've been doing, this MJO will be propagating through an area of the tropics that typically enhances below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation for the high plains.  That is ONLY if the MJO is forcing the pattern, which at this point I think it has been a big factor this winter.  Here is a composite of what typically occurs across the states as MJO's move towards the Indian Ocean during February....


So, back to the MJO current location and forecast.  If it continues to hold and move into what is called phase space 1 and 2 and is "calling the shots", I would continue my thoughts of below normal temperatures going into the first week of March.  That doesn't mean that a day or two moderates to above normal temperatures.  Just that overall it will be colder than normal.  Also, there will continue to be opportunities for moisture - meaning the odds would favor at least normal to above normal precipitation.

Overall March should be very active across the high plains.  In fact, I think the odds of an Arctic intrusion of very cold is fairly likely by the 1st.  During the month I would expect another blizzard, severe weather, a day or two of warm and windy, etc.  In other words, a typical March.  

I'll try and update again next week.