How disappointing! Mostly have nots!

 In the previous post I did on the third (please read it here), I ended with "There will still be some locations that get "ripped off", but at least it's another chance.  Throughout much of May there will be additional opportunities and it doesn't look hot and windy for a while.  Fingers crossed.  Hopefully numbers will be good for May as there is some concern for June.  More on that later when I get a chance."

The system that was coming in with tons of moisture to work with had so much promise!  The forecast precipitation map from the Weather Prediction Center was very optimistic and I was hopeful it would be close, yet I knew there would be some locations that got "ripped off".  However, I was not expecting so much of the area missing out.  The reason?  The atmosphere dumped copious amounts of rain across Oklahoma and into the eastern half of Kansas.  Look at the map of rainfall...depressing for sure if you live across the high plains...

Essentially the front ignited south of Kansas and that helped to reinforce the cold air across Kansas and disrupted the flow of moisture into the weather system aloft - which was actually in a perfect position to benefit the high plains.  Yes, there was a relatively narrow band of good rainfall across parts of eastern Colorado and NW KS, but for the most of the area of high plains it was nothing more than heavy drizzle for a couple of days.

Looking at this mornings upper air chart....

We are still in a very active pattern.  Now the problem, and I was NOT seeing this happen, the pattern has shifted a little north.  The result?  HOT and windy conditions will be developing.  I blew that one!  Will there be thunderstorms with the heat?  I would think there will be a possibility but I'm afraid only on a scattered basis (again next week the 9-13th) and there may be too much of a CAP (warm air aloft).  I can't imagine though with the active pattern that at least of a portion of the high plains will benefit (maybe towards the weekend).  

Here is the outlook from the Weather Prediction Center...

I'll try to update again later in the week.

The haves and have nots

Unfortunately because of job constraints I have not been able to update as often as I would like.  Let me review what has happened since the last posting on April 15th - and you can read that one here if you haven't already.

For months (actually since January 18) I had thrown out a date of  "April 20th give or take a day or two" as a potential big day across the high plains. That is a three month specific outlook!  I updated that on the 15th of April with a "between April 20-24".  Did anything happen?  You be the judge.

Severe weather reports on April 21

Severe weather reports on April 22 (day Sharron Springs got hit with a tornado)

In the previous posts I mentioned there a colder period the last days of April and into the first days of May with a possible frost or light freeze.  Here is a map of low temperatures across Kansas this morning the 3rd (and disregard the single digit for Spearville obviously).

Also in the previous posts I mentioned "slight bit of hope in May".  The past few systems have brought some good rains but for the "haves" and not for the "nots".   Such is systems in the spring.  At least now there is storms farther west.  Here is a look at the precipitation this past 14 days.

Obviously the hardest hit area by the drought has continued to miss a lot of the precipitation but yet some areas did get some good rain this past 2 weeks.   The good news is that, as been case all spring, the pattern remains active but now some gulf of Mexico moisture is returning.  Looking at the upper air image from this afternoon...

There is a pretty strong upper level system across the Great Basin.  Surface moisture was returning up through west Texas and should be enough to interact with this system to bring some good rain across a pretty good chunk of the high plains.   Unfortunately  much of west Texas may not benefit much.

There will still be some locations that get "ripped off", but at least it's another chance.  Throughout much of May there will be additional opportunities and it doesn't look hot and windy for a while.  Fingers crossed.  Hopefully numbers will be good for May as there is some concern for June.  More on that later when I get a chance.

Desperate weather conditions for the high plains - but is there a glimmer of hope?

 In the previous post (click here) done on the 4th, the title was "Not much evidence to change the outlook going into May".  Unfortunately that still holds true.  I ended that writing with 

"It's bad and likely to get worse before there is a slight bit of hope in May.  That outlook I made back in February for May stands (very warm and likely below normal precipitation).  I'm not that optimistic but I do think there is a little bit of hope for May as Gulf of Mexico moisture becomes more prevelent.  Unfortunately early indications are for a hot and dry early start to summer."

I  don't have any reason to change that thinking...even including the statement of a "little bit of hope for May".  But, can the winter wheat (especially our western areas) hold on for another couple of weeks?

Looking at this mornings upper air chart....

The X across the eastern Pacific west of California will race across the central U.S. late Saturday night and into Easter Sunday.  Unfortunately it will only benefit eastern Kansas and Oklahoma and boundary layer moisture will be lacking - AGAIN!  That has been a theme all winter and early spring.  The high plains gets the wind (and dirt) although this weekends system won't produce the wind like we've had.  Maybe that is a sign of a temporary break?.  After that weekend system, there appears to be two or three systems, albeit at least the first two will be weak.  You guessed it - favoring areas east of the high plains (mostly).  But towards the weekend (23-24)?  That storm is looking interesting as it may be slow enough initially to allow gulf of Mexico moisture to creep into the high plains.  But there is great uncertainty as the potential system is just a disturbance that is WAY out across the Pacific, 1000's of miles away (not even on the map above)  Fingers crossed! 

In almost all of the posts I have done for 2022 so far, on February 11th I said....

"BTW, the period of March 3-10 has my attention and then again around April 20th (give or take a day or two) appears to be a period we should be concerned about.  By that time, any potential storm system of significance could bring a wide variety of weather to the central U.S., including severe convective weather, a nasty dust storm, or even an April blizzard.  Just a date to put on your calendar. "

The April 20th potential period (give or take a two - see above) that we should be concerned about?  Somehow word has been spreading that I predicted that chaos would ensue - on exactly the 20th.  It gets around - and back to me from someone that didn't even know about this blog. Ha!  After I did some reanalysis, the period is about 4 days long or from April 20th through the 24th.  Although I do see a potential system on "exactly" the 20th, it may be relatively weak and favoring areas east of the high plains (wow a broken record).  But the system I mentioned that could be in the vicinity of this next weekend?  That could be the one that could bring that variety of weather (again re-read the quote in blue).  Lordy I'm just hoping for some widespread decent moisture.

About a late freeze.  Yesterday morning low temperatures got a little out of hand behind that monster blizzard that hammered the northern plains.  Here are lows from the Kansas State Mesonet.

I don't think we're done with freezing temperatures yet.  I see a potential of some colder weather the last few days of April and into early May that could potentially bring a frost or a freeze.  More on that later.

Not much evidence to change the outlook going into May

 First a discussion about last week.  In the previous update on the 25th (read it here) I discussed 2 possible systems last week, one for early in the week that I was afraid would be too far north and east and to "fast" to bring much to the high plains.  That verified.  The second system was expected by the end of the week.  Out of the two, I sure was hoping that at least the last one would benefit the region; but I had my doubts.  However, and what has been typical, there was a lack of moisture to feed that system that came through Friday (1st).  At least there was some decent moisture for much of the Texas Panhandle.  Had a typical (normal for early April) amount of boundary layer moisture been present, then there would have been widespread showers and thunderstorms across much of the high plains.  The moisture availability for weather systems has been an issue for months.  I see no change in the immediate future.

Here is a map of precipitation that fell during this past week.

Back on February 24, I gave this outlook in that update:

Overall I think March will average out to be above normal on temperatures and probably below normal on precipitation (despite the chance for early March).

April - likely below normal precipitation and near to below normal temperatures.

May - Very warm and likely below normal precipitation, except that with luck on timing of systems, the precipitation outlook for May could be closer to normal or even above.  There is a tremendous amount of uncertainty.  Fingers crossed for sure.

March - precipitation did end up below normal...

As for temperatures - I was WAY off as the average March temperature was 2 to 3 degrees below normal thanks in part to several cold stretches.

April - Obviously the month just started but based on the trend of weather systems and lack of available gulf of Mexico moisture for the high plains I see no reason to change that outlook on precipitation.  However, I might be inclined to bump the temperature outlook up to normal.  I think there will be enough cold periods to mitigate the warm stretches but the entire month should average out closer to normal. 

The wind that has been an issue this past month will likely continue throughout April.   At Dodge City, there were six days of 50 MPH winds or greater during March.  This is the most for March since at least 1992.  Unfortunately fire weather conditions in March were prevelent and I'm afraid that will continue for much of April although there will start to be some green-up.

In that previous blog posting, I had mentioned April 7th-10th as the next chance for hope of a weather system.  It is showing up on forecast models (a little slower) but as has been the case recently, I think it will likely come in too fast and too far north and east to benefit the high plains.  And, unfortunately, there will likely be a lot of wind and dry air with that one too.

It's bad and likely to get worse before there is a slight bit of hope in May.  That outlook I made back in February for May stands (very warm and likely below normal precipitation).  I'm not that optimistic but I do think there is a little bit of hope for May as Gulf of Mexico moisture becomes more prevelent.  Unfortunately early indications are for a hot and dry early start to summer.

An active pattern but will it benefit the high plains?

The strong weather system earlier in the week, centered on the 21st, did bring widespread precipitation as expected.  But amounts for some of the region were highly impacted by an early development of rain and thunderstorms across Oklahoma and Texas.    Thus, the storm total under-preformed for much of the high plains - which is obviously very discouraging. 

The large area of rain and thunderstorms mentioned above disrupted the flow of moisture into at least western Kansas.  Amounts therefore were not that heavy.  But as the storm system finally completed it's development and started lifting out into the central U.S., precipitation picked up again in intensity.  Towards the end the intense lifting of the atmosphere it cooled the column enough that snow fell.  It's honestly such a crap shoot to determine location, intensity and duration of precipitation and if it will flip to snow.  There are just so many variables that can impact actual amounts.  One variable is what I mentioned - the large area of thunderstorms that developed across Oklahoma and Texas disrupting the moisture inflow into the storm.  I've recently shared similar charts as the forecast from computer models seen below...

Precipitation forecast for Dodge City...

Here is the precipitation map from Monday into Tuesday....

Here is a look of the snowfall for that Monday night (and earlier in eastern Colorado that was hammered).

Overall, here is a look at the amount of precipitation that fell with the storm (just in Kansas)...

Looking ahead, my analysis does indicate another system for early next week.  But, there is a strong possibility it will move too far north and east of the high plains (and too fast) to bring much precipitation.  Eastern Kansas is another story.  There is hope, I'm just not too optimistic at this point. I'm counting on the remnants of the Madden Julian Oscillation mentioned in the previous blog post (click here to read that one).  Looking at the jetstream map from this morning, the potential system is indicated by the red X across the Pacific with one potential track overlaid on the map.

That system will have to intensify and track in a perfect location to bring much precipitation to the high plains.  Keeping fingers crossed.

Beyond that early week system, my analysis would indicate another possible weather system towards the end of the week.   It does exist just off the jetstream map above.  Surely one of the two will bring some moisture to the high plains.  At least the Weather Prediction Center thinks so.  Here is their map of precipitation for next week.

Going into April, the first 14 days of the month looks to be cooler that normal, on average.  There will be some warmer days though but offset by several more strong cold fronts.  There should be yet another weather system that could bring some moisture - somewhere between the 7th and 10th.  Beyond that second week, some of the computer models are indicating much above normal temperatures for the balance of April, and dry!  My early analysis would lead me to believe the average temperature for the entire month would be a little above normal but with the possibility of a late freeze.  More on that later.  Oh - and for those that have been reading this blog for a while.  Do you remember that magical date of April 20th that I mentioned several months ago?   Let's see what happens.

A temporary change in the pattern?

 Per the headline....the key may be "temporary".  Let me explain.

In the previous posting I did on the 11th (please read it if you haven't already by clicking here), I picked out March 18th as a potential weather event.  It was slightly faster but that is encouraging to me that it occurred across the high plains.  This storm was particularly difficult to predict, in terms of precipitation and especially snowfall.  It was nearly impossible to predict when (and if) the rain was going to flip to snow and just how soon.  The heavier band of snowfall was a bit less than the potential and shifted east by only about 20 miles.  The amount of liquid equivalent was almost spot on for many areas.  Here is a map of the precipitation followed by the amount of snowfall based on reports....

On this Friday mornings satellite you can see the snow left over and again where the heavier snow band set up.  

Leading up to the system, look at the ridiculous range of possibilities from the highest resolution forecast models, ranging from an inch to over 18 inches at Dodge City....

And forecasters are supposed to give you an exact number at your location?  Ha!

Ok, let's look ahead to this next system for next week.

So, again the 18th was a target date.  I didn't have a target date for next week (21st and 22nd), but when I reanalyzed some of my data there is a hint, but just a hint.  I think what maybe helped this system yesterday and last night and then a pretty good potential next week is that the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) became stationary and made a loop around the Maritime Continent. 

This "could" have had a temporary influence on the overall pattern.  That influence though will likely go away.  So what does this mean?  The system yesterday and last night was pretty strong.  The hint of a system next week looks to be impactful! 

Looking at the jetstream map....

The red X across the Pacific is expected to amplify (technical terms is a anticyclonic wave break), which should allow it to slow down and deepen into the southern Rockies.  Since the Gulf of Mexico moisture should be readily available, the precipitation  potential across a large part of the central U.S., will be very high.  We haven't had this type of opportunity since the widespread rains of mid-October.  Keep your fingers crossed.  Here is the outlook from the Weather Prediction Center...

I will try and do a brief update early next week.

Everything is still on track

If you go back to the previous post on Feb 24 (read it by clicking here), everything is right on schedule and pretty much as expected.  In the previous posts, even back a month to February 11th, I mentioned March 3-10 as having my attention.  That period worked out almost exactly!  Of course the high plains was too far west to benefit on the earlier systems but at least "most" of the region received some precipitation with the last of the events for this period.

The first event on March 4 had some thunderstorms across southwest Kansas but because of very dry air, only a few hundredths of an inch was observed.

That system eventually produced the deadly outbreak of thunderstorms and tornadoes across Iowa and Missouri.  The second part of the system produced the thundersleet, thundersnow, and freezing rain across south central into northeast Kansas and snow across northwest Kansas.

This has been a theme for many of the systems...just too far east of the high plains.  The last of the systems brought heavy snow across northern Kansas and the second round was less organized and brought several inches to southeast Colorado and into northwest Oklahoma.

In that previous post I also mentioned April 20.  But that is just one date and not a period of unsettledness.  We'll see how that one goes!

Even though I have posted about those two (March 3-10 and April 20), that doesn't mean there won't be other systems.  In fact the another one that shows up in my analysis is March 18.  But as has been the case (and mentioned above), the timing and moisture has shifted the "main" threat east of the high plains.  Maybe at least a part of the high plains will get lucky with that one.  There have definitely been weather systems since the fall, its just that they are NOT targeting our area!  With time, a few will.

As indicated in the previous blog post....

Overall I think March will average out to be above normal on temperatures and probably below normal on precipitation (despite the chance for early March).

April - likely below normal precipitation and near to below normal temperatures.

May - Very warm and likely below normal precipitation, except that with luck on timing of systems, the precipitation outlook for May could be closer to normal or even above.  There is a tremendous amount of uncertainty.  Fingers crossed for sure. 

I don't have any new "clues" to change much.  This cold spell with the March 3-10 period could be enough to skew the average March temperature to closer to normal even with the warming trend expected starting this week.  I also see another cool down and possible storminess the last few days of the month. 

One final thought...

There has been a pretty robust Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) and I think it has had some impact on our weather systems this past month.  This MJO has actually stalled (probably tied to the colder than normal Pacific waters east of the dateline).  I need to re-analysis any possible connection to our current pattern and see if this new development could give us any hope for this late winter and early spring.  I'm not optimistic.

I hope to post again late next week.  This is one of my busier times of the year (but the big R time is nearing).